Modeling canker incidence based on stand parameters.

• Main Authors: Roger W. Ruess (10651781), Loretta M. Winton (10651784), Gerard C. Adams (10651787)
• Format: Still Image
• Language: unknown
• Published: 2021
• Subjects: Microbiology; Ecology; Infectious Diseases; Biological Sciences not elsewhere classified; smaller-diameter trees; Stand-level infection rates; growth declines; ecosystem function; aspen basal area; Widespread mortality; Tanana Kuskokwim ecoregion; Populus tremuloides; 88 study sites; novel canker disease; disturbance regimes; Widespread aspen mortality; landscape position; canker infection; United States; canker incidence; successional dynamics; Alaskan boreal forests; carbon starvation; modeling canker probability; Alaska Range; summer drought; canker pathogen; 6 Alaska ecoregions; Alaska paper birch; summer vapor pressure deficits; aspen leaf miner outbreak; alaska range; Kuskokwim; Alaska
• Online Access: https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0250078.g006

Odds ratios for stand structural parameters from the mixed-effects logistic model: Logit (π) = log (π/(1- π)) = –0.761–0.177* DBH – 0.023* Relative Aspen Density + 0.092* Aspen Basal Area + 0.106* Mean Aspen DBH – 1.413* CK – 3.263* CR —0.358* RM + 0.692* TKL – 0.736* NOM . Ecoregion β values are computed relative to YTU which does not appear in the model and has a log (odds) = the intercept when all other factors are 0. Variables with odds ratios significantly greater than 1.0 indicate a significant increase the odds of canker infection while those below 1.0 indicate a significant reduction in the probability of canker infection. For example, an odds ratio of 0.838 (red dot) means that for every 1 cm increase in DBH of a given aspen tree, the odds of having canker is reduced by 16.2% (= (1–0.839)*100), while an odds ratio of 1.112 (blue dot) means that every 1 cm increase in average stand-level DBH (a surrogate for stand age) increased the odds of having canker by 11.2% ((1.112–1)*100). Ecoregion abbreviations follow Fig 4 .