| Summary: | Despite the recent advances in technology, the reported variation in actual versus planned cost illustrates that 9 out of 10 transportation projects exceed budget. Failure to maintain budget can be traced to human error i.e. unrealistic targets and strategic misrepresentation. This thesis introduces a methodology new to Iceland entitled “Reference Class Forecasting Method” (RCFM), which predicts the outcome of a planned action based on actual outcomes in a reference class where actions are similar to those being forecast. This project focusses on the building of a prototype futuristic model for the Icelandic Road Administration (ICERA) and the feasibility of introducing RCFM into the organisation. This research is based on a comparable transportation project in the UK, where RCFM was used; in this project cost data from earlier ICERA projects was collected. Two reference classes were built for (i) roads and (ii) bridges. Lastly, statistical distribution was found for each class in order to provide a realistic estimate of the shortfall/overspend. The conclusion indicated in the short-term that the foresight model based on the RCFM was not suitable for ICERA. Indeed, the current method used by ICERA was shown to be sufficiently accurate. This method evaluates the unit costs against the moving average, and a higher unit price should offer ICERA adequate protection. It should be noted, that a shortfall/overspend is not a consequence of a higher than expected unit price rather, additional volume or scope not clearly defined at the beginning. However, the last of timeliness of ICERA´s current method suggested that longer term the RCFM would be more suitable. Key Words: Project Management, Optimism Bias, Shortfall/Overspend, Risk Management, Reference Class Forecasting Method Þrátt fyrir þá hröðu tækniþróun sem orðið hefur á síðastliðnum áratugum eru enn mikil frávik milli raunkostnaðar og áætlaðs kostnaðar og hafa ýmsar rannsóknir bent til þess að 9 af hverjum 10 samgönguverkefnum stríða við framúrkeyrslu í ...
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