| Summary: | Northern Quebec (Nunavik) presents an important intersection between population growth and climate change. The Inuit population of Nunavik has the fastest growth rate in any region of Canada. Land-use planning is an urgent and pressing need for northern communities built on permafrost, where there are considerable risks to development in areas where permafrost may thaw. As northern communities work to adapt to climate changes, they will be in great need of confident recommendations about locations of future development projects. This paper presents a case-study of the community of Tasiujaq and assesses the probability of thaw settlement of the surface, a process seriously affecting infrastructure stability. A method is developed for quantifying uncertainty in the resulting map, expressed as a function of judgmentbased uncertainty in the various factors that can influence eventual map quality. The best estimate of vulnerability and of the confidence in that estimate can be expressed in a single, simple map that allows an analyst to convey both of these vital aspects of the assessment process. GIS, analytical hierarchy process, multi-criteria analysis, permafrost, sensitivity, Nunavik, Monte Carlo
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