| Summary: | Natural disasters can cause significant economic impacts impeding growth and development of local sectors. In sub-Saharan Africa, the effects may intensify following social–political unrest and unstable governance. Interestingly, though uncommon, both happenings took place consecutively causing huge economic meltdown on the horticulture sub-sector in Kenya. This paper evaluates the impacts of two events: (1) the 2008 post-election violence in Kenya and (2) the 2010 Icelandic volcanic eruption on the Kenyan horticultural exports. Long-term annual and monthly trends in export volume for cut-flower, vegetables and fruits (export cluster) over a 19-year period are examined to establish impacts of both events on horticulture exports. The performance of the three export clusters are examined, highlighting underlying seasonal variations in export volume in the last ~2 decades. Results show positive trends in all three commodities, until 2008/2009, where the trend declines continuously hitting lowest volume in 2010, particularly the month of December which coincides with a rainy, low production season. There are significant differences in export volumes between the groups (F = 63.08, p > 0.001, F critical = 3.316). Cut-flowers lead in export, followed by vegetables and fruits. Characteristic seasonal peaks occur for vegetables and fruits, unlike cut-flowers which show continuous year round production. Interestingly, the annual average fruit exports increased (cut-flowers and vegetables decreased) during and after the two events, a trend not observed previously. The findings of the current study present important lessons that can help initiate a discussion on suitable needed changes within the horticulture sub-sector, to aid sustainable development of the local economies. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2015 Post-election violence, Volcano eruption, Cut-flowers, Vegetables, Horticulture, Kenya
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