| Summary: | Petroleum companies and Arctic states are carefully watching the sea ice withdrawal and the future access to petroleum resources in the Arctic. We raise the question if the global market for petroleum will actually keep the door open for substantial supply of oil and gas from the Arctic, a region with almost a quarter of global undiscovered petroleum resources, but at high costs and long lead times. This makes future Arctic supply highly dependent on oil and gas prices, influenced by future supply of unconventional oil and gas and also by huge amounts of conventional gas in the Middle East coming on stream. We study the oil and gas supplies from 6 Arctic regions during 2010–2050 using the FRISBEE model of global oil and gas markets, based on Arctic resource estimates from the U.S. Geological Survey. Arctic; Oil market; Gas market; Equilibrium model;
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