Enhanced simulated early 21st century Arctic sea ice loss due to CMIP6 biomass burning emissions
The mechanisms underlying decadal variability in Arctic sea ice remain actively debated. Here, we show that variability in boreal biomass burning (BB) emissions strongly influences simulated Arctic sea ice on multidecadal time scales. In particular, we find that a strong acceleration in sea ice decl...
Published in: | Science Advances |
---|---|
Main Authors: | , , , , , , , , , , |
Format: | Text |
Language: | English |
Published: |
American Association for the Advancement of Science
2022
|
Subjects: | |
Online Access: | http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9328692/ http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/35895816 https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.abo2405 |
id |
ftpubmed:oai:pubmedcentral.nih.gov:9328692 |
---|---|
record_format |
openpolar |
spelling |
ftpubmed:oai:pubmedcentral.nih.gov:9328692 2023-05-15T14:42:09+02:00 Enhanced simulated early 21st century Arctic sea ice loss due to CMIP6 biomass burning emissions DeRepentigny, Patricia Jahn, Alexandra Holland, Marika M. Kay, Jennifer E. Fasullo, John Lamarque, Jean-François Tilmes, Simone Hannay, Cécile Mills, Michael J. Bailey, David A. Barrett, Andrew P. 2022-07-27 http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9328692/ http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/35895816 https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.abo2405 en eng American Association for the Advancement of Science http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9328692/ http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/35895816 http://dx.doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.abo2405 Copyright © 2022 The Authors, some rights reserved; exclusive licensee American Association for the Advancement of Science. No claim to original U.S. Government Works. Distributed under a Creative Commons Attribution License 4.0 (CC BY). https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution license (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) , which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited. CC-BY Sci Adv Earth Environmental Ecological and Space Sciences Text 2022 ftpubmed https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.abo2405 2022-08-14T00:31:50Z The mechanisms underlying decadal variability in Arctic sea ice remain actively debated. Here, we show that variability in boreal biomass burning (BB) emissions strongly influences simulated Arctic sea ice on multidecadal time scales. In particular, we find that a strong acceleration in sea ice decline in the early 21st century in the Community Earth System Model version 2 (CESM2) is related to increased variability in prescribed BB emissions in the sixth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) through summertime aerosol-cloud interactions. Furthermore, we find that more than half of the reported improvement in sea ice sensitivity to CO(2) emissions and global warming from CMIP5 to CMIP6 can be attributed to the increased BB variability, at least in the CESM. These results highlight a new kind of uncertainty that needs to be considered when incorporating new observational data into model forcing while also raising questions about the role of BB emissions on the observed Arctic sea ice loss. Text Arctic Global warming Sea ice PubMed Central (PMC) Arctic Science Advances 8 30 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
PubMed Central (PMC) |
op_collection_id |
ftpubmed |
language |
English |
topic |
Earth Environmental Ecological and Space Sciences |
spellingShingle |
Earth Environmental Ecological and Space Sciences DeRepentigny, Patricia Jahn, Alexandra Holland, Marika M. Kay, Jennifer E. Fasullo, John Lamarque, Jean-François Tilmes, Simone Hannay, Cécile Mills, Michael J. Bailey, David A. Barrett, Andrew P. Enhanced simulated early 21st century Arctic sea ice loss due to CMIP6 biomass burning emissions |
topic_facet |
Earth Environmental Ecological and Space Sciences |
description |
The mechanisms underlying decadal variability in Arctic sea ice remain actively debated. Here, we show that variability in boreal biomass burning (BB) emissions strongly influences simulated Arctic sea ice on multidecadal time scales. In particular, we find that a strong acceleration in sea ice decline in the early 21st century in the Community Earth System Model version 2 (CESM2) is related to increased variability in prescribed BB emissions in the sixth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) through summertime aerosol-cloud interactions. Furthermore, we find that more than half of the reported improvement in sea ice sensitivity to CO(2) emissions and global warming from CMIP5 to CMIP6 can be attributed to the increased BB variability, at least in the CESM. These results highlight a new kind of uncertainty that needs to be considered when incorporating new observational data into model forcing while also raising questions about the role of BB emissions on the observed Arctic sea ice loss. |
format |
Text |
author |
DeRepentigny, Patricia Jahn, Alexandra Holland, Marika M. Kay, Jennifer E. Fasullo, John Lamarque, Jean-François Tilmes, Simone Hannay, Cécile Mills, Michael J. Bailey, David A. Barrett, Andrew P. |
author_facet |
DeRepentigny, Patricia Jahn, Alexandra Holland, Marika M. Kay, Jennifer E. Fasullo, John Lamarque, Jean-François Tilmes, Simone Hannay, Cécile Mills, Michael J. Bailey, David A. Barrett, Andrew P. |
author_sort |
DeRepentigny, Patricia |
title |
Enhanced simulated early 21st century Arctic sea ice loss due to CMIP6 biomass burning emissions |
title_short |
Enhanced simulated early 21st century Arctic sea ice loss due to CMIP6 biomass burning emissions |
title_full |
Enhanced simulated early 21st century Arctic sea ice loss due to CMIP6 biomass burning emissions |
title_fullStr |
Enhanced simulated early 21st century Arctic sea ice loss due to CMIP6 biomass burning emissions |
title_full_unstemmed |
Enhanced simulated early 21st century Arctic sea ice loss due to CMIP6 biomass burning emissions |
title_sort |
enhanced simulated early 21st century arctic sea ice loss due to cmip6 biomass burning emissions |
publisher |
American Association for the Advancement of Science |
publishDate |
2022 |
url |
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9328692/ http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/35895816 https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.abo2405 |
geographic |
Arctic |
geographic_facet |
Arctic |
genre |
Arctic Global warming Sea ice |
genre_facet |
Arctic Global warming Sea ice |
op_source |
Sci Adv |
op_relation |
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9328692/ http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/35895816 http://dx.doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.abo2405 |
op_rights |
Copyright © 2022 The Authors, some rights reserved; exclusive licensee American Association for the Advancement of Science. No claim to original U.S. Government Works. Distributed under a Creative Commons Attribution License 4.0 (CC BY). https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution license (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) , which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited. |
op_rightsnorm |
CC-BY |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.abo2405 |
container_title |
Science Advances |
container_volume |
8 |
container_issue |
30 |
_version_ |
1766313856474284032 |