Enhanced simulated early 21st century Arctic sea ice loss due to CMIP6 biomass burning emissions

The mechanisms underlying decadal variability in Arctic sea ice remain actively debated. Here, we show that variability in boreal biomass burning (BB) emissions strongly influences simulated Arctic sea ice on multidecadal time scales. In particular, we find that a strong acceleration in sea ice decl...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Science Advances
Main Authors: DeRepentigny, Patricia, Jahn, Alexandra, Holland, Marika M., Kay, Jennifer E., Fasullo, John, Lamarque, Jean-François, Tilmes, Simone, Hannay, Cécile, Mills, Michael J., Bailey, David A., Barrett, Andrew P.
Format: Text
Language:English
Published: American Association for the Advancement of Science 2022
Subjects:
Earth
Environmental
Ecological
and Space Sciences
Arctic
Global warming
Sea ice
Online Access:http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9328692/
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/35895816
https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.abo2405
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Summary:The mechanisms underlying decadal variability in Arctic sea ice remain actively debated. Here, we show that variability in boreal biomass burning (BB) emissions strongly influences simulated Arctic sea ice on multidecadal time scales. In particular, we find that a strong acceleration in sea ice decline in the early 21st century in the Community Earth System Model version 2 (CESM2) is related to increased variability in prescribed BB emissions in the sixth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) through summertime aerosol-cloud interactions. Furthermore, we find that more than half of the reported improvement in sea ice sensitivity to CO(2) emissions and global warming from CMIP5 to CMIP6 can be attributed to the increased BB variability, at least in the CESM. These results highlight a new kind of uncertainty that needs to be considered when incorporating new observational data into model forcing while also raising questions about the role of BB emissions on the observed Arctic sea ice loss.

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