Delayed Antarctic sea-ice decline in high-resolution climate change simulations
Despite global warming and Arctic sea-ice loss, on average the Antarctic sea-ice extent has not declined since 1979 when satellite data became available. In contrast, climate model simulations tend to exhibit strong negative sea-ice trends for the same period. This Antarctic sea-ice paradox leads to...
| Published in: | Nature Communications |
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| Main Authors: | , , , , , , , |
| Format: | Text |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Nature Publishing Group UK
2022
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| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8810850/ http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/35110565 https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-022-28259-y |
| Summary: | Despite global warming and Arctic sea-ice loss, on average the Antarctic sea-ice extent has not declined since 1979 when satellite data became available. In contrast, climate model simulations tend to exhibit strong negative sea-ice trends for the same period. This Antarctic sea-ice paradox leads to low confidence in 21st-century sea-ice projections. Here we present multi-resolution climate change projections that account for Southern Ocean mesoscale eddies. The high-resolution configuration simulates stable September Antarctic sea-ice extent that is not projected to decline until the mid-21st century. We argue that one reason for this finding is a more realistic ocean circulation that increases the equatorward heat transport response to global warming. As a result, the ocean becomes more efficient at moderating the anthropogenic warming around Antarctica and hence at delaying sea-ice decline. Our study suggests that explicitly simulating Southern Ocean eddies is necessary for providing Antarctic sea-ice projections with higher confidence. |
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