Spatial Analysis of Global Variability in Covid-19 Burden

BACKGROUND: Since the first occurrence of coronavirus disease 2019 (Covid-19), a number of online tools have become available to assist with tracking Covid-19 prevalence. Yet we are unaware of resources that provide country-specific Covid-19 incidence data. METHODS: We undertook a descriptive analys...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Risk Management and Healthcare Policy
Main Authors: Miller, Larry E, Bhattacharyya, Ruemon, Miller, Anna L
Format: Text
Language:English
Published: Dove 2020
Subjects:
Rapid Communication
Iceland
Online Access:http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7280244/
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32581614
https://doi.org/10.2147/RMHP.S255793
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Summary:BACKGROUND: Since the first occurrence of coronavirus disease 2019 (Covid-19), a number of online tools have become available to assist with tracking Covid-19 prevalence. Yet we are unaware of resources that provide country-specific Covid-19 incidence data. METHODS: We undertook a descriptive analysis of the global impact of Covid-19 using data reported on March 17, 2020. The prevalence of Covid-19 cases, fatalities attributed to Covid-19, and the case fatality rate for each of the 238 countries were accessed from the World Health Organization global Covid-19 tracking site, and we additionally calculated Covid-19 incidence based on country-specific population data. We determined the country-specific point prevalence and incidence of Covid-19 and associated deaths while using geocoded data to display their spatial distribution with geographic heat maps. RESULTS: The analysis included 193,197 Covid-19 cases and 7859 associated deaths. The point prevalence was highest in China (80,881), Italy (31,506), Iran (16,169), and Spain (11,312); no other country reported more than 10,000 cases. The incidence (per million population) was highest in San Marino (3389) followed by Iceland (645) and Italy (521); no other country had an incidence above 400 per million population. CONCLUSION: Countries with a high Covid-19 prevalence may not have a high incidence, and vice versa. Public health agencies that provide real-time infection tracking tools should report country-specific Covid-19 incidence metrics, in addition to prevalence data.

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