The Trajectory Towards a Seasonally Ice-Free Arctic Ocean

PURPOSE OF REVIEW: The observed substantial loss of Arctic sea ice has raised prospects of a seasonally ice-free Arctic Ocean within the foreseeable future. In this review, we summarize our current understanding of the most likely trajectory of the Arctic sea-ice cover towards this state. RECENT FIN...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Current Climate Change Reports
Main Authors: Notz, Dirk, Stroeve, Julienne
Format: Text
Language:English
Published: Springer International Publishing 2018
Subjects:
Arctic Climate Change (M Serreze
Section Editor)
Arctic
Arctic Ocean
Climate change
Global warming
Sea ice
Online Access:http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6411203/
https://doi.org/10.1007/s40641-018-0113-2
Description
Summary:PURPOSE OF REVIEW: The observed substantial loss of Arctic sea ice has raised prospects of a seasonally ice-free Arctic Ocean within the foreseeable future. In this review, we summarize our current understanding of the most likely trajectory of the Arctic sea-ice cover towards this state. RECENT FINDINGS: The future trajectory of the Arctic sea-ice cover can be described through a deterministic component arising primarily from future greenhouse gas emissions, and a chaotic component arising from internal variability. The deterministic component is expected to cause a largely ice-free Arctic Ocean during summer for less than 2 (∘)C global warming relative to pre-industrial levels. To keep chances below 5 % that the Arctic Ocean will largely be ice free in a given year, total future CO(2) emissions must remain below 500 Gt. SUMMARY: The Arctic Ocean will become ice free during summer before mid-century unless greenhouse gas emissions are rapidly reduced.

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