Consequences of rapid ice sheet melting on the Sahelian population vulnerability

• Published in: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
• Main Authors: Defrance, Dimitri, Ramstein, Gilles, Charbit, Sylvie, Vrac, Mathieu, Famien, Adjoua Moïse, Sultan, Benjamin, Swingedouw, Didier, Dumas, Christophe, Gemenne, François, Alvarez-Solas, Jorge, Vanderlinden, Jean-Paul
• Format: Text
• Language: English
• Published: National Academy of Sciences 2017
• Subjects: Social Sciences; Greenland; Ice Sheet
• Online Access: http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5488922/; http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/28584113; https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1619358114

A major uncertainty concerning the 21st century climate is the ice sheet response to global warming. Paleodata indicate rapid ice sheet destabilizations during the last deglaciation, which could lead to an underestimation of sea level rise, as suggested in recent publications. Therefore, we explore the impact of different scenarios of Greenland partial melting in the very sensitive Sahel region. We first demonstrate that such a melting induces a drastic decrease of West African monsoon precipitation. Moreover, we quantify the agricultural area losses due to monsoon changes. Consequently, we pinpoint a large potential for migration of millions of people in the coming decades. Thus, the ice sheet destabilization provokes not only coastal damages but also large population migration in monsoon area.