Consequences of rapid ice sheet melting on the Sahelian population vulnerability

A major uncertainty concerning the 21st century climate is the ice sheet response to global warming. Paleodata indicate rapid ice sheet destabilizations during the last deglaciation, which could lead to an underestimation of sea level rise, as suggested in recent publications. Therefore, we explore...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
Main Authors: Defrance, Dimitri, Ramstein, Gilles, Charbit, Sylvie, Vrac, Mathieu, Famien, Adjoua Moïse, Sultan, Benjamin, Swingedouw, Didier, Dumas, Christophe, Gemenne, François, Alvarez-Solas, Jorge, Vanderlinden, Jean-Paul
Format: Text
Language:English
Published: National Academy of Sciences 2017
Subjects:
Social Sciences
Greenland
Ice Sheet
Online Access:http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5488922/
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/28584113
https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1619358114
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Summary:A major uncertainty concerning the 21st century climate is the ice sheet response to global warming. Paleodata indicate rapid ice sheet destabilizations during the last deglaciation, which could lead to an underestimation of sea level rise, as suggested in recent publications. Therefore, we explore the impact of different scenarios of Greenland partial melting in the very sensitive Sahel region. We first demonstrate that such a melting induces a drastic decrease of West African monsoon precipitation. Moreover, we quantify the agricultural area losses due to monsoon changes. Consequently, we pinpoint a large potential for migration of millions of people in the coming decades. Thus, the ice sheet destabilization provokes not only coastal damages but also large population migration in monsoon area.

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