Mechanisms for low-frequency variability of summer Arctic sea ice extent

• Published in: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
• Main Author: Zhang, Rong
• Format: Text
• Language: English
• Published: National Academy of Sciences 2015
• Subjects: Physical Sciences; Arctic; Sea ice
• Online Access: http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4403206/; http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/25825758; https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1422296112

The observed decline in summer Arctic sea ice has often been attributed, in large part, to the increase in greenhouse gases. However, the contributions from internal low-frequency variability in the climate system are not well understood. Here a multiple regression model is developed for the first time, to the author’s knowledge, to quantify the contributions of three key predictors on the internal low-frequency variability of summer Arctic sea ice extent. If the ocean heat transport into the Arctic were to weaken in the near future due to internal variability, there might be a hiatus in the decline of September Arctic sea ice, and a delay in attaining a summer ice-free Arctic. This plausible scenario with broad ecological and economic impacts should not be ignored.