Mechanisms for low-frequency variability of summer Arctic sea ice extent
The observed decline in summer Arctic sea ice has often been attributed, in large part, to the increase in greenhouse gases. However, the contributions from internal low-frequency variability in the climate system are not well understood. Here a multiple regression model is developed for the first t...
| Published in: | Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences |
|---|---|
| Main Author: | |
| Format: | Text |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
National Academy of Sciences
2015
|
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4403206/ http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/25825758 https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1422296112 |
| Summary: | The observed decline in summer Arctic sea ice has often been attributed, in large part, to the increase in greenhouse gases. However, the contributions from internal low-frequency variability in the climate system are not well understood. Here a multiple regression model is developed for the first time, to the author’s knowledge, to quantify the contributions of three key predictors on the internal low-frequency variability of summer Arctic sea ice extent. If the ocean heat transport into the Arctic were to weaken in the near future due to internal variability, there might be a hiatus in the decline of September Arctic sea ice, and a delay in attaining a summer ice-free Arctic. This plausible scenario with broad ecological and economic impacts should not be ignored. |
|---|