Seasonal Predictability of the East Atlantic Pattern from Sea Surface Temperatures

• Published in: PLoS ONE
• Main Authors: Iglesias, Isabel, Lorenzo, María N., Taboada, Juan J.
• Format: Text
• Language: English
• Published: Public Library of Science 2014
• Subjects: Research Article; Pacific; North Atlantic
• Online Access: http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3899265; https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0086439

This study analyzes the influence of sea surface temperatures (SSTs) on the second mode of atmospheric variability in the north Atlantic/European sector, namely the East-Atlantic (EA) pattern, for the period 1950–2012. For this purpose, lead-lag relationships between SSTs and the EA pattern, ranging from 0 to 3 seasons, were assessed. As a main result, anomalies of the EA pattern in boreal summer and autumn are significantly related to SST anomalies in the Indo-Pacific Ocean during the preceding seasons. A statistical forecasting scheme based on multiple linear regression was used to hindcast the EA-anomalies with a lead-time of 1 to 2 months. The results of a one-year-out cross-validation approach indicate that the phases of the EA in summer and autumn can be properly hindcast.