Seasonal Predictability of the East Atlantic Pattern from Sea Surface Temperatures

This study analyzes the influence of sea surface temperatures (SSTs) on the second mode of atmospheric variability in the north Atlantic/European sector, namely the East-Atlantic (EA) pattern, for the period 1950–2012. For this purpose, lead-lag relationships between SSTs and the EA pattern, ranging...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:PLoS ONE
Main Authors: Iglesias, Isabel, Lorenzo, María N., Taboada, Juan J.
Format: Text
Language:English
Published: Public Library of Science 2014
Subjects:
Research Article
Pacific
North Atlantic
Online Access:http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3899265
https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0086439
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Summary:This study analyzes the influence of sea surface temperatures (SSTs) on the second mode of atmospheric variability in the north Atlantic/European sector, namely the East-Atlantic (EA) pattern, for the period 1950–2012. For this purpose, lead-lag relationships between SSTs and the EA pattern, ranging from 0 to 3 seasons, were assessed. As a main result, anomalies of the EA pattern in boreal summer and autumn are significantly related to SST anomalies in the Indo-Pacific Ocean during the preceding seasons. A statistical forecasting scheme based on multiple linear regression was used to hindcast the EA-anomalies with a lead-time of 1 to 2 months. The results of a one-year-out cross-validation approach indicate that the phases of the EA in summer and autumn can be properly hindcast.

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