Imprecise probability assessment of tipping points in the climate system
Major restructuring of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation, the Greenland and West Antarctic ice sheets, the Amazon rainforest and ENSO, are a source of concern for climate policy. We have elicited subjective probability intervals for the occurrence of such major changes under global war...
Published in: | Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences |
---|---|
Main Authors: | , , , , |
Format: | Text |
Language: | English |
Published: |
National Academy of Sciences
2009
|
Subjects: | |
Online Access: | http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2657590 http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/19289827 https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.0809117106 |
id |
ftpubmed:oai:pubmedcentral.nih.gov:2657590 |
---|---|
record_format |
openpolar |
spelling |
ftpubmed:oai:pubmedcentral.nih.gov:2657590 2023-05-15T13:33:00+02:00 Imprecise probability assessment of tipping points in the climate system Kriegler, Elmar Hall, Jim W. Held, Hermann Dawson, Richard Schellnhuber, Hans Joachim 2009-03-31 http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2657590 http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/19289827 https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.0809117106 en eng National Academy of Sciences http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2657590 http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/19289827 http://dx.doi.org/10.1073/pnas.0809117106 Freely available online through the PNAS open access option. Social Sciences Text 2009 ftpubmed https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.0809117106 2013-09-02T11:38:20Z Major restructuring of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation, the Greenland and West Antarctic ice sheets, the Amazon rainforest and ENSO, are a source of concern for climate policy. We have elicited subjective probability intervals for the occurrence of such major changes under global warming from 43 scientists. Although the expert estimates highlight large uncertainty, they allocate significant probability to some of the events listed above. We deduce conservative lower bounds for the probability of triggering at least 1 of those events of 0.16 for medium (2–4 °C), and 0.56 for high global mean temperature change (above 4 °C) relative to year 2000 levels. Text Antarc* Antarctic Greenland PubMed Central (PMC) Antarctic Greenland Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 106 13 5041 5046 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
PubMed Central (PMC) |
op_collection_id |
ftpubmed |
language |
English |
topic |
Social Sciences |
spellingShingle |
Social Sciences Kriegler, Elmar Hall, Jim W. Held, Hermann Dawson, Richard Schellnhuber, Hans Joachim Imprecise probability assessment of tipping points in the climate system |
topic_facet |
Social Sciences |
description |
Major restructuring of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation, the Greenland and West Antarctic ice sheets, the Amazon rainforest and ENSO, are a source of concern for climate policy. We have elicited subjective probability intervals for the occurrence of such major changes under global warming from 43 scientists. Although the expert estimates highlight large uncertainty, they allocate significant probability to some of the events listed above. We deduce conservative lower bounds for the probability of triggering at least 1 of those events of 0.16 for medium (2–4 °C), and 0.56 for high global mean temperature change (above 4 °C) relative to year 2000 levels. |
format |
Text |
author |
Kriegler, Elmar Hall, Jim W. Held, Hermann Dawson, Richard Schellnhuber, Hans Joachim |
author_facet |
Kriegler, Elmar Hall, Jim W. Held, Hermann Dawson, Richard Schellnhuber, Hans Joachim |
author_sort |
Kriegler, Elmar |
title |
Imprecise probability assessment of tipping points in the climate system |
title_short |
Imprecise probability assessment of tipping points in the climate system |
title_full |
Imprecise probability assessment of tipping points in the climate system |
title_fullStr |
Imprecise probability assessment of tipping points in the climate system |
title_full_unstemmed |
Imprecise probability assessment of tipping points in the climate system |
title_sort |
imprecise probability assessment of tipping points in the climate system |
publisher |
National Academy of Sciences |
publishDate |
2009 |
url |
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2657590 http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/19289827 https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.0809117106 |
geographic |
Antarctic Greenland |
geographic_facet |
Antarctic Greenland |
genre |
Antarc* Antarctic Greenland |
genre_facet |
Antarc* Antarctic Greenland |
op_relation |
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2657590 http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/19289827 http://dx.doi.org/10.1073/pnas.0809117106 |
op_rights |
Freely available online through the PNAS open access option. |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.0809117106 |
container_title |
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences |
container_volume |
106 |
container_issue |
13 |
container_start_page |
5041 |
op_container_end_page |
5046 |
_version_ |
1766037661758259200 |