Imprecise probability assessment of tipping points in the climate system

Major restructuring of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation, the Greenland and West Antarctic ice sheets, the Amazon rainforest and ENSO, are a source of concern for climate policy. We have elicited subjective probability intervals for the occurrence of such major changes under global war...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
Main Authors: Kriegler, Elmar, Hall, Jim W., Held, Hermann, Dawson, Richard, Schellnhuber, Hans Joachim
Format: Text
Language:English
Published: National Academy of Sciences 2009
Subjects:
Social Sciences
Antarctic
Greenland
Antarc*
Online Access:http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2657590
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/19289827
https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.0809117106
Description
Summary:Major restructuring of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation, the Greenland and West Antarctic ice sheets, the Amazon rainforest and ENSO, are a source of concern for climate policy. We have elicited subjective probability intervals for the occurrence of such major changes under global warming from 43 scientists. Although the expert estimates highlight large uncertainty, they allocate significant probability to some of the events listed above. We deduce conservative lower bounds for the probability of triggering at least 1 of those events of 0.16 for medium (2–4 °C), and 0.56 for high global mean temperature change (above 4 °C) relative to year 2000 levels.

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