Mechanisms of tropical cyclone response under climate change in the community earth system model

Climate change induces a myriad of effects which influences the global tropical cyclone (TC) genesis frequency. Here we explore how North Atlantic and Western Pacific TCs are affected under climate change using a present-day and a future (1% pCO2 scenario) ensemble of high resolution simulations. We...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Climate Dynamics
Main Authors: van Westen, René M., Dijkstra, Henk A., Bloemendaal, Nadia
Format: Text
Language:English
Published: Springer Berlin Heidelberg 2023
Subjects:
Article
Pacific
North Atlantic
Online Access:http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC10371960/
https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-023-06680-3
Description
Summary:Climate change induces a myriad of effects which influences the global tropical cyclone (TC) genesis frequency. Here we explore how North Atlantic and Western Pacific TCs are affected under climate change using a present-day and a future (1% pCO2 scenario) ensemble of high resolution simulations. We find that the number of TCs decreases ([Formula: see text]) in the North Atlantic but increases ([Formula: see text] ) in the Western Pacific. Part of these opposing variations are linked to differences in the ocean’s meridional overturning circulation, which gives rise to a different sea surface temperature response and air-sea fluxes between the two basins. The results show the important role of oceanic climate change on TC response. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s00382-023-06680-3.

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