The trajectory towards a seasonally ice-free Arctic Ocean
Purpose of Review: The observed substantial loss of Arctic sea ice has raised prospects of a seasonally ice-free Arctic Ocean within the foreseeable future. In this review, we summarize our current understanding of the most likely trajectory of the Arctic sea-ice cover towards this state. Recent Fin...
| Published in: | Current Climate Change Reports |
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| Main Authors: | , |
| Format: | Article in Journal/Newspaper |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
2018
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| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | http://hdl.handle.net/21.11116/0000-0001-6315-8 http://hdl.handle.net/21.11116/0000-0002-54E9-9 |
| Summary: | Purpose of Review: The observed substantial loss of Arctic sea ice has raised prospects of a seasonally ice-free Arctic Ocean within the foreseeable future. In this review, we summarize our current understanding of the most likely trajectory of the Arctic sea-ice cover towards this state. Recent Findings: The future trajectory of the Arctic sea-ice cover can be described through a deterministic component arising primarily from future greenhouse gas emissions, and a chaotic component arising from internal variability. The deterministic component is expected to cause a largely ice-free Arctic Ocean during summer for less than 2 ∘C global warming relative to pre-industrial levels. To keep chances below 5 % that the Arctic Ocean will largely be ice free in a given year, total future CO2 emissions must remain below 500 Gt. Summary: The Arctic Ocean will become ice free during summer before mid-century unless greenhouse gas emissions are rapidly reduced. © 2018, The Author(s). |
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