Statistical indicators of Arctic sea-ice stability - prospects and limitations

We examine if a potential "tipping point" in Arctic sea ice, causing abrupt and irreversible sea-ice loss, could be foreseen with statistical early warning signals. We assess this idea by using several models of different complexity. We find robust and consistent trends in variability that...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:The Cryosphere
Main Authors: Bathiany, S., van der Bolt, B., Williamson, M., Lenton, T., Scheffer, M., van Nes, E., Notz, D.
Format: Article in Journal/Newspaper
Language:English
Published: 2016
Subjects:
Arctic
Sea ice
The Cryosphere
Online Access:http://hdl.handle.net/11858/00-001M-0000-002B-125B-4
http://hdl.handle.net/11858/00-001M-0000-002B-125D-F
Description
Summary:We examine if a potential "tipping point" in Arctic sea ice, causing abrupt and irreversible sea-ice loss, could be foreseen with statistical early warning signals. We assess this idea by using several models of different complexity. We find robust and consistent trends in variability that are not specific to the existence of a tipping point. While this makes an early warning impossible, it allows to estimate sea-ice variability from only short observational records or reconstructions.

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