Antarctic ice sheet response to sudden and sustained ice-shelf collapse (ABUMIP)

• Published in: Journal of Glaciology
• Main Authors: Sun, S., Pattyn, F., Simon, E., Albrecht, T., Cornford, S., Calov, R., Dumas, C., Gillet-Chaulet, F., Goelzer, H., Golledge, N., Greve, R., Hoffman, M., Humbert, A., Kazmierczak, E., Kleiner, T., Leguy, G., Lipscomb, W., Martin, D., Morlighem, M., Nowicki, S., Pollard, D., Price, S., Quiquet, A., Seroussi, H., Schlemm, T., Sutter, J., van de Wal, R., Winkelmann, R., Zhang, T.
• Format: Article in Journal/Newspaper
• Language: English
• Published: 2020
• Subjects: Antarc*; Antarctic; Antarctica; East Antarctica; Ice Sheet; Ice Shelf; Ice Shelves; Journal of Glaciology
• Online Access: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/pubman/item/item_24904; https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/pubman/item/item_24904_1/component/file_24907/24904oa.pdf

Antarctica’s ice shelves modulate the grounded ice flow, and weakening of ice shelves due to climate forcing will decrease their ‘buttressing’ effect, causing a response in the grounded ice. While the processes governing ice-shelf weakening are complex, uncertainties in the response of the grounded ice sheet are also difficult to assess. The Antarctic BUttressing Model Intercomparison Project (ABUMIP) compares ice-sheet model responses to decrease in buttres-sing by investigating the ‘end-member’ scenario of total and sustained loss of ice shelves. Although unrealistic, this scenario enables gauging the sensitivity of an ensemble of 15 ice-sheet models to a total loss of buttressing, hence exhibiting the full potential of marine ice-sheet instability. All models predict that this scenario leads to multi-metre (1–12 m) sea-level rise over 500 years from present day. West Antarctic ice sheet collapse alone leads to a 1.91–5.08 m sea-level rise due to the marine ice-sheet instability. Mass loss rates are a strong func-tion of the sliding/friction law, with plastic laws cause a further destabilization of the Aurora and Wilkes Subglacial Basins, East Antarctica. Improvements to marine ice-sheet models have greatly reduced variability between modelled ice-sheet responses to extreme ice-shelf loss, e.g. compared to the SeaRISE assessments.