耦合模式中北太平洋和北大西洋海表面温度年代际可预报性和预报技巧的季节依赖性

• Main Authors: 容新尧, 刘征宇, 段晚锁, Liu Yun
• Other Authors: 中国气象科学研究院灾害天气国家重点实验室,北京,100081, 北京大学物理学院大气与海洋科学系,北京 100871, 中国科学研大气物理研究所大气科学和地球流体力学数值模拟国家重点实验室,北京,100029, Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic SciencesCenter for Climatic Research, University of Wisconsin-Madison,Madison Wisconsin,USA
• Format: Journal/Newspaper
• Language: English
• Published: 地球科学进展 2017
• Subjects: 北太平洋; 北大西洋; 年代际预测; 季节依赖性; 耦合模式; North Pacific; North Atlantic; Decadal prediction; Seasonal dependence; Coupled GCM; Pacific
• Online Access: https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11897/467998; https://doi.org/10.11867/j.issn.1001-8166.2017.04.0382

利用一个全球耦合环流模式在理想模式框架下进行了3组动力预报试验,研究了北太平洋和北大西洋海表面温度异常(SSTA)的年代际可预报性和预报技巧.结果表明北太平洋年平均SS-TA在年代际尺度上可预报性和预报技巧表现较低,明显弱于北大西洋.通过分析不同季节平均SSTA的可预报性与预报技巧,发现北太平洋中西部区域冬季平均SSTA的年代际可预报性和预报技巧显著高于其他季节,其量值和北大西洋相当,表现为明显的季节依赖性;北大西洋SSTA的可预报性和预报技巧也显示了随季节变化的特征.进一步分析表明,北太平洋SSTA年代际可预报性和预报技巧的季节依赖性归因于北太平洋冬季SSTA的年与年之间再现机制,这一再现机制源于北太平洋混合层显著的季节变化;而北大西洋SSTA的可预报性和预报技巧的季节依赖性则可能与其他过程(如大西洋年代际涛动)的季节变化有关.研究结果表明,对于年代际气候预报,如果者虑所关注指标的季节平均,则可能在某些季节获得比年平均更高的预报技巧. In this paper,the decadal predictability and forecast skill of the Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies (SSTA) in the North Pacific and North Atlantic Ocean were investigated by conducting three sets of perfect model forecast experiments using a global coupled general circulation model.The resuhs show that the annual mean SSTA in the North Pacific is less predictable on decadal time scale,with the forecast skill notably weaker than that of the North Atlantic.By analyzing the predictability and forecast skill of seasonal mean SSTA,it is found that the decadal predictability and forecast skill of the winter mean (JFM) SSTA in the central and western North Pacific are significantly higher than those of other seasons,and the magnitude is comparable with that of the North Atlantic.The predictability and forecast skill of the North Atlantic SSTA also show seasonal variations.Further analysis indicates that the seasonal dependence of the SSTA decadal predictability and forecast skill in the North Pacific is due to the winter-to-winter reemergence mechanism of SSTA in the North Pacific,which results from the seasonal variation of the mixed layer depth of the North Pacific Ocean.While the seasonal dependence of the North Atlantic SSTA predictability and forecast skill might be related to seasonal variations of other processes,such as the Atlantic Decadal Oscillation.The results of this paper suggest that for decadal climate prediction,if the forecast skill of the seasonal mean is taken into account,we might obtain higher than annual mean forecast skill for some seasons. 公益性行业(气象)科研专项项目“基于FGOALS-s、CMA和CESM气候系统模式的年代际集合预测系统的建立与研究”; 科技部全球变化研究项目(编号:2012CB955201)资助.Project supported by the R&D Special Fund for Public Welfare Industry (Meteorology) "Development and research of ensemble decadal climate prediction system based on global climate models FGOALS-s,CAMS and CESM"; The National Basic Research Program of China 4 382-395 32