Revisiting the potential of melt pond fraction as a predictor for the seasonal Arctic sea ice extent minimum

The rapid change in Arctic sea ice in recent decades has led to a rising demand for seasonal sea ice prediction. A recent modeling study that employed a prognostic melt pond model in a stand-alone sea ice model found that September Arctic sea ice extent can be accurately predicted from the melt pond...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Environmental Research Letters
Main Authors: Liu, Jiping, Song, Mirong, Horton, Radley M., Hu, Yongyun
Other Authors: Liu, JP (reprint author), SUNY Albany, Dept Atmospher & Environm Sci, Albany, NY 12222 USA., SUNY Albany, Dept Atmospher & Environm Sci, Albany, NY 12222 USA., Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Atmospher Phys, LASG, Beijing, Peoples R China., Columbia Univ, Ctr Climate Syst Res, New York, NY USA., Peking Univ, Sch Phys, Dept Atmospher & Ocean Sci, Beijing 100871, Peoples R China.
Format: Journal/Newspaper
Language:English
Published: ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS 2015
Subjects:
seasonal sea ice prediction
melt pond fraction
sea ice extent
PREDICTABILITY
ENSEMBLE
SKILL
WILL
Arctic
Sea ice
Online Access:https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11897/420322
https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/10/5/054017
Description
Summary:The rapid change in Arctic sea ice in recent decades has led to a rising demand for seasonal sea ice prediction. A recent modeling study that employed a prognostic melt pond model in a stand-alone sea ice model found that September Arctic sea ice extent can be accurately predicted from the melt pond fraction in May. Here we show that satellite observations show no evidence of predictive skill in May. However, we find that a significantly strong relationship (high predictability) first emerges as the melt pond fraction is integrated from early May to late June, with a persistent strong relationship only occurring after late July. Our results highlight that late spring to mid summer melt pond information is required to improve the prediction skill of the seasonal sea ice minimum. Furthermore, satellite observations indicate a much higher percentage of melt pond formation in May than does the aforementioned model simulation, which points to the need to reconcile model simulations and observations, in order to better understand key mechanisms of melt pond formation and evolution and their influence on sea ice state. NOAA [NA14OAR4310216]; National Natural Science Foundation of China [41176169] SCI(E) EI ARTICLE jliu26@albany.edu 5 10

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