The Arctic LDRD project: What happened?
This presentation overviews results from the 2019 LDRD Reserve project “Diagnosing near-future changes in Arctic sea ice and ocean conditions” and a follow-up 2020 CSES Rapid Response project “Multi- Model Risk Assessment for Arctic Navigability.” We analyzed Arctic simulations from 4 CMIP6 model en...
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2022
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| Online Access: | http://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1726143 https://www.osti.gov/biblio/1726143 https://doi.org/10.2172/1726143 |
| Summary: | This presentation overviews results from the 2019 LDRD Reserve project “Diagnosing near-future changes in Arctic sea ice and ocean conditions” and a follow-up 2020 CSES Rapid Response project “Multi- Model Risk Assessment for Arctic Navigability.” We analyzed Arctic simulations from 4 CMIP6 model ensembles (E3SM, CESM-CAM, CESM-WACCM and CESM-DPLE), comparing them with observations. We then applied a machine-learning approach using copulas to produce joint probabilities of adverse conditions along potential shipping transit routes through the Arctic. Here we compare and contrast the different models and examine the utility of the copula approach applied to these data sets. |
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