Realized and potential climate responses of lichen and bryophyte communities in a national forest inventory

• Main Author: Smith, Robert J.
• Other Authors: McCune, Bruce, Ganio, Lisa, Jones, F. Andrew, Bachelet, Dominique, Jovan, Sarah, Botany and Plant Pathology, Oregon State University. Graduate School
• Format: Doctoral or Postdoctoral Thesis
• Language: English; unknown
• Published: Oregon State University
• Subjects: Subarctic; Alaska
• Online Access: https://ir.library.oregonstate.edu/concern/graduate_thesis_or_dissertations/1544bt443

Climate and terrestrial vegetation have had mutual feedbacks for nearly five hundred million years, yet both are now departing from recent historical norms, with uncertain implications for forest ecosystems. This dissertation outlines the current and potential future climate responses of lichen and bryophyte communities in the United States as part of a national forest inventory. The first task was to identify influences on carbon and nitrogen storage of moss and lichen “ground layers” in subarctic interior Alaska. Nutrient stores were more sensitive to local vegetation and topography than regional macroclimate. Nutrients and biomass were greatest among apparently less disturbed stands. This suggests that climatic changes could diminish ground layer nutrient storage indirectly if they promote intensifying wildfire regimes or expansions of competitive vascular vegetation. Turning to focus on species diversity, the next task was to quantify the strength of relationship between epiphytic lichen community composition and macroclimate across the 4,000 km-long swath of the U.S. Pacific coastal states. The strongest fitting lichen response gradients involved precipitation, temperature, and a heat-moisture index. Lichen indicator species (diagnostic of ten defined climate zones) emerged as useful monitoring tools because their abundance changes could signal shifting climate zone boundaries. After establishing key present-day climatic relationships, the next task was to pinpoint nationwide locations where epiphytic lichen communities will be most vulnerable to species losses under current and future warming scenarios. Novel niche-based metrics revealed greatest vulnerability among supposedly “warm-adapted” communities in southern/lowland locations, contrary to usual assumptions centering on cooler northern/montane habitats. Vulnerability analyses can steer conservation and monitoring attention to specific locations where warming is most expected to affect ecological communities. The final task, to anticipate how warming ...