A 21st Century Warming Threshold for Sustained Greenland Ice Sheet Mass Loss
peer reviewed Under anticipated future warming, the Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) will pass a threshold when meltwater runoff exceeds the accumulation of snow, resulting in a negative surface mass balance (SMB < 0) and sustained mass loss. Here, we dynamically and statistically downscale the outputs...
Published in: | Geophysical Research Letters |
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Main Authors: | , , , , |
Format: | Article in Journal/Newspaper |
Language: | English |
Published: |
Blackwell Publishing Ltd
2021
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Subjects: | |
Online Access: | https://orbi.uliege.be/handle/2268/301943 https://orbi.uliege.be/bitstream/2268/301943/1/Noel_2020_GRL.pdf https://doi.org/10.1029/2020GL090471 |
Summary: | peer reviewed Under anticipated future warming, the Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) will pass a threshold when meltwater runoff exceeds the accumulation of snow, resulting in a negative surface mass balance (SMB < 0) and sustained mass loss. Here, we dynamically and statistically downscale the outputs of an Earth system model to 1 km resolution to infer that a Greenland near-surface atmospheric warming of 4.5 ± 0.3°C—relative to preindustrial—is required for GrIS SMB to become persistently negative. Climate models from CMIP5 and CMIP6 translate this regional temperature change to a global warming threshold of 2.7 ± 0.2°C. Under a high-end warming scenario, this threshold may be reached around 2055, while for a strong mitigation scenario it will likely not be passed. Depending on the emissions scenario taken, our method estimates 6–13 cm sea level rise from GrIS SMB by the year 2100. |
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