Greenland ice sheet climate disequilibrium and committed sea-level rise
peer reviewed AbstractIce loss from the Greenland ice sheet is one of the largest sources of contemporary sea-level rise (SLR). While process-based models place timescales on Greenland’s deglaciation, their confidence is obscured by model shortcomings including imprecise atmospheric and oceanic coup...
Published in: | Nature Climate Change |
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Language: | English |
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Springer Science and Business Media LLC
2022
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Online Access: | https://orbi.uliege.be/handle/2268/294174 https://orbi.uliege.be/bitstream/2268/294174/1/Box-NatureCC-2022%20%28GRD%2csea%20level%29.pdf https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-022-01441-2 |
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ftorbi:oai:orbi.ulg.ac.be:2268/294174 2024-10-13T14:07:39+00:00 Greenland ice sheet climate disequilibrium and committed sea-level rise Box, Jason E. Hubbard, Alun Bahr, David B. Colgan, William T. Fettweis, Xavier Mankoff, Kenneth D. Wehrlé, Adrien Noël, Brice van den Broeke, Michiel R. Wouters, Bert Bjørk, Anders A. Fausto, Robert S. SPHERES - ULiège 2022-08-29 https://orbi.uliege.be/handle/2268/294174 https://orbi.uliege.be/bitstream/2268/294174/1/Box-NatureCC-2022%20%28GRD%2csea%20level%29.pdf https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-022-01441-2 en eng Springer Science and Business Media LLC https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-022-01441-2.pdf urn:issn:1758-678X urn:issn:1758-6798 https://orbi.uliege.be/handle/2268/294174 info:hdl:2268/294174 open access http://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_abf2 info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess Nature Climate Change (2022-08-29) Social Sciences (miscellaneous) Environmental Science (miscellaneous) Physical chemical mathematical & earth Sciences Earth sciences & physical geography Physique chimie mathématiques & sciences de la terre Sciences de la terre & géographie physique journal article http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501 info:eu-repo/semantics/article peer reviewed 2022 ftorbi https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-022-01441-2 2024-09-27T07:01:36Z peer reviewed AbstractIce loss from the Greenland ice sheet is one of the largest sources of contemporary sea-level rise (SLR). While process-based models place timescales on Greenland’s deglaciation, their confidence is obscured by model shortcomings including imprecise atmospheric and oceanic couplings. Here, we present a complementary approach resolving ice sheet disequilibrium with climate constrained by satellite-derived bare-ice extent, tidewater sector ice flow discharge and surface mass balance data. We find that Greenland ice imbalance with the recent (2000–2019) climate commits at least 274 ± 68 mm SLR from 59 ± 15 × 103 km2 ice retreat, equivalent to 3.3 ± 0.9% volume loss, regardless of twenty-first-century climate pathways. This is a result of increasing mass turnover from precipitation, ice flow discharge and meltwater run-off. The high-melt year of 2012 applied in perpetuity yields an ice loss commitment of 782 ± 135 mm SLR, serving as an ominous prognosis for Greenland’s trajectory through a twenty-first century of warming. Article in Journal/Newspaper Greenland Ice Sheet University of Liège: ORBi (Open Repository and Bibliography) Greenland Nature Climate Change 12 9 808 813 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
University of Liège: ORBi (Open Repository and Bibliography) |
op_collection_id |
ftorbi |
language |
English |
topic |
Social Sciences (miscellaneous) Environmental Science (miscellaneous) Physical chemical mathematical & earth Sciences Earth sciences & physical geography Physique chimie mathématiques & sciences de la terre Sciences de la terre & géographie physique |
spellingShingle |
Social Sciences (miscellaneous) Environmental Science (miscellaneous) Physical chemical mathematical & earth Sciences Earth sciences & physical geography Physique chimie mathématiques & sciences de la terre Sciences de la terre & géographie physique Box, Jason E. Hubbard, Alun Bahr, David B. Colgan, William T. Fettweis, Xavier Mankoff, Kenneth D. Wehrlé, Adrien Noël, Brice van den Broeke, Michiel R. Wouters, Bert Bjørk, Anders A. Fausto, Robert S. Greenland ice sheet climate disequilibrium and committed sea-level rise |
topic_facet |
Social Sciences (miscellaneous) Environmental Science (miscellaneous) Physical chemical mathematical & earth Sciences Earth sciences & physical geography Physique chimie mathématiques & sciences de la terre Sciences de la terre & géographie physique |
description |
peer reviewed AbstractIce loss from the Greenland ice sheet is one of the largest sources of contemporary sea-level rise (SLR). While process-based models place timescales on Greenland’s deglaciation, their confidence is obscured by model shortcomings including imprecise atmospheric and oceanic couplings. Here, we present a complementary approach resolving ice sheet disequilibrium with climate constrained by satellite-derived bare-ice extent, tidewater sector ice flow discharge and surface mass balance data. We find that Greenland ice imbalance with the recent (2000–2019) climate commits at least 274 ± 68 mm SLR from 59 ± 15 × 103 km2 ice retreat, equivalent to 3.3 ± 0.9% volume loss, regardless of twenty-first-century climate pathways. This is a result of increasing mass turnover from precipitation, ice flow discharge and meltwater run-off. The high-melt year of 2012 applied in perpetuity yields an ice loss commitment of 782 ± 135 mm SLR, serving as an ominous prognosis for Greenland’s trajectory through a twenty-first century of warming. |
author2 |
SPHERES - ULiège |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Box, Jason E. Hubbard, Alun Bahr, David B. Colgan, William T. Fettweis, Xavier Mankoff, Kenneth D. Wehrlé, Adrien Noël, Brice van den Broeke, Michiel R. Wouters, Bert Bjørk, Anders A. Fausto, Robert S. |
author_facet |
Box, Jason E. Hubbard, Alun Bahr, David B. Colgan, William T. Fettweis, Xavier Mankoff, Kenneth D. Wehrlé, Adrien Noël, Brice van den Broeke, Michiel R. Wouters, Bert Bjørk, Anders A. Fausto, Robert S. |
author_sort |
Box, Jason E. |
title |
Greenland ice sheet climate disequilibrium and committed sea-level rise |
title_short |
Greenland ice sheet climate disequilibrium and committed sea-level rise |
title_full |
Greenland ice sheet climate disequilibrium and committed sea-level rise |
title_fullStr |
Greenland ice sheet climate disequilibrium and committed sea-level rise |
title_full_unstemmed |
Greenland ice sheet climate disequilibrium and committed sea-level rise |
title_sort |
greenland ice sheet climate disequilibrium and committed sea-level rise |
publisher |
Springer Science and Business Media LLC |
publishDate |
2022 |
url |
https://orbi.uliege.be/handle/2268/294174 https://orbi.uliege.be/bitstream/2268/294174/1/Box-NatureCC-2022%20%28GRD%2csea%20level%29.pdf https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-022-01441-2 |
geographic |
Greenland |
geographic_facet |
Greenland |
genre |
Greenland Ice Sheet |
genre_facet |
Greenland Ice Sheet |
op_source |
Nature Climate Change (2022-08-29) |
op_relation |
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-022-01441-2.pdf urn:issn:1758-678X urn:issn:1758-6798 https://orbi.uliege.be/handle/2268/294174 info:hdl:2268/294174 |
op_rights |
open access http://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_abf2 info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-022-01441-2 |
container_title |
Nature Climate Change |
container_volume |
12 |
container_issue |
9 |
container_start_page |
808 |
op_container_end_page |
813 |
_version_ |
1812814143469649920 |