Greenland ice sheet climate disequilibrium and committed sea-level rise
peer reviewed AbstractIce loss from the Greenland ice sheet is one of the largest sources of contemporary sea-level rise (SLR). While process-based models place timescales on Greenland’s deglaciation, their confidence is obscured by model shortcomings including imprecise atmospheric and oceanic coup...
Published in: | Nature Climate Change |
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Main Authors: | , , , , , , , , , , , |
Other Authors: | |
Format: | Article in Journal/Newspaper |
Language: | English |
Published: |
Springer Science and Business Media LLC
2022
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Subjects: | |
Online Access: | https://orbi.uliege.be/handle/2268/294174 https://orbi.uliege.be/bitstream/2268/294174/1/Box-NatureCC-2022%20%28GRD%2csea%20level%29.pdf https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-022-01441-2 |
Summary: | peer reviewed AbstractIce loss from the Greenland ice sheet is one of the largest sources of contemporary sea-level rise (SLR). While process-based models place timescales on Greenland’s deglaciation, their confidence is obscured by model shortcomings including imprecise atmospheric and oceanic couplings. Here, we present a complementary approach resolving ice sheet disequilibrium with climate constrained by satellite-derived bare-ice extent, tidewater sector ice flow discharge and surface mass balance data. We find that Greenland ice imbalance with the recent (2000–2019) climate commits at least 274 ± 68 mm SLR from 59 ± 15 × 103 km2 ice retreat, equivalent to 3.3 ± 0.9% volume loss, regardless of twenty-first-century climate pathways. This is a result of increasing mass turnover from precipitation, ice flow discharge and meltwater run-off. The high-melt year of 2012 applied in perpetuity yields an ice loss commitment of 782 ± 135 mm SLR, serving as an ominous prognosis for Greenland’s trajectory through a twenty-first century of warming. |
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