Intense atmospheric rivers can weaken ice shelf stability at the Antarctic Peninsula

• Published in: Communications Earth & Environment
• Main Authors: Wille, Jonathan D., Favier, Vincent, Jourdain, Nicolas C., Kittel, Christoph, Turton, Jenny V., Agosta, Cécile, Gorodetskaya, Irina V., Picard, Ghislain, Codron, Francis, Santos, Christophe Leroy-Dos, Amory, Charles, Fettweis, Xavier, Blanchet, Juliette, Jomelli, Vincent, Berchet, Antoine
• Other Authors: SPHERES - ULiège
• Format: Article in Journal/Newspaper
• Language: English
• Published: Springer Science and Business Media LLC 2022
• Subjects: General Earth and Planetary Sciences; General Environmental Science; Physical; chemical; mathematical & earth Sciences; Earth sciences & physical geography; Physique; chimie; mathématiques & sciences de la terre; Sciences de la terre & géographie physique; Antarc*; Antarctic; Antarctic Peninsula; Ice Shelf; Ice Shelves; Sea ice
• Online Access: https://orbi.uliege.be/handle/2268/289720; https://orbi.uliege.be/bitstream/2268/289720/1/s43247-022-00422-9.pdf; https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-022-00422-9

peer reviewed AbstractThe disintegration of the ice shelves along the Antarctic Peninsula have spurred much discussion on the various processes leading to their eventual dramatic collapse, but without a consensus on an atmospheric forcing that could connect these processes. Here, using an atmospheric river detection algorithm along with a regional climate model and satellite observations, we show that the most intense atmospheric rivers induce extremes in temperature, surface melt, sea-ice disintegration, or large swells that destabilize the ice shelves with 40% probability. This was observed during the collapses of the Larsen A and B ice shelves during the summers of 1995 and 2002 respectively. Overall, 60% of calving events from 2000–2020 were triggered by atmospheric rivers. The loss of the buttressing effect from these ice shelves leads to further continental ice loss and subsequent sea-level rise. Under future warming projections, the Larsen C ice shelf will be at-risk from the same processes.