Surface melt and runoff on Antarctic ice shelves at 1.5°C, 2°C and 4°C of future warming

• Published in: Geophysical Research Letters
• Main Authors: Gilbert, Ella, Kittel, Christoph
• Format: Article in Journal/Newspaper
• Language: English
• Published: Wiley 2021
• Subjects: surface mass balance; surface melting; runoff; ice shelves; Antarctica; Physical; chemical; mathematical & earth Sciences; Earth sciences & physical geography; Physique; chimie; mathématiques & sciences de la terre; Sciences de la terre & géographie physique; Antarc*; Antarctic; Ice Shelf; Ice Shelves; Pine Island
• Online Access: https://orbi.uliege.be/handle/2268/258735; https://orbi.uliege.be/bitstream/2268/258735/1/2020GL091733_accepted.pdf; https://doi.org/10.1029/2020GL091733

peer reviewed The future surface mass balance (SMB) of Antarctic ice shelves has not been constrained with models of sufficient resolution and complexity. Here, we force the high‐resolution Modèle Atmosphérique Régional (MAR) with future simulations from four CMIP models to evaluate the likely effects on the SMB of warming of 1.5°C, 2°C and 4°C above pre‐industrial temperatures. We find non‐linear growth in melt and runoff which causes SMB to become less positive with more pronounced warming. Consequently, Antarctic ice shelves may be more likely to contribute indirectly to sea level rise via hydrofracturing‐induced collapse, which facilitates accelerated glacial discharge. Using runoff and melt as indicators of ice shelf stability, we find that several Antarctic ice shelves (Larsen C, Wilkins, Pine Island and Shackleton) are vulnerable to disintegration at 4°C. Limiting 21st century warming to 2°C will halve the ice shelf area susceptible to hydrofracturing‐induced collapse compared to 4°C.