Detecting a forced signal in satellite-era sea-level change
peer reviewed In this study, we compare the spatial patterns of simulated geocentric sea-level change to observations from satellite altimetry over the period 1993-2015 to assess whether a forced signal is detectable. This is challenging, as on these time scales internal variability plays an importa...
Published in: | Environmental Research Letters |
---|---|
Main Authors: | , , , , , , , , , , , , |
Other Authors: | |
Format: | Article in Journal/Newspaper |
Language: | English |
Published: |
Institute of Physics Publishing
2020
|
Subjects: | |
Online Access: | https://orbi.uliege.be/handle/2268/248321 https://orbi.uliege.be/bitstream/2268/248321/1/Richter%2bet%2bal_2020_Environ._Res._Lett._10.1088_1748-9326_ab986e.pdf https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab986e |
Summary: | peer reviewed In this study, we compare the spatial patterns of simulated geocentric sea-level change to observations from satellite altimetry over the period 1993-2015 to assess whether a forced signal is detectable. This is challenging, as on these time scales internal variability plays an important role and may dominate the observed spatial patterns of regional sea-level change. Model simulations of regional sea-level change associated with sterodynamic sea level, atmospheric loading, glacier mass change, and ice-sheet surface mass balance changes are combined with observations of groundwater depletion, reservoir storage, and dynamic ice-sheet mass changes. The resulting total geocentric regional sea-level change is then compared to independent measurements from satellite altimeter observations. The detectability of the climate-forced signal is assessed by comparing the model ensemble mean of the "historical" simulations with the characteristics of sea-level variability in pre-industrial control simulations. To further minimize the impact of internal variability, zonal averages were produced. We find that, in all ocean basins, zonally averaged simulated sea-level changes are consistent with observations within sampling uncertainties associated with simulated internal variability of the sterodynamic component. Furthermore, the simulated zonally averaged sea-level change cannot be explained by internal variability alone - thus we conclude that the observations include a forced contribution that is detectable at basin scales. |
---|