The Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets under 1.5 °C global warming

peer reviewed Even if anthropogenic warming were constrained to less than 2 °C above pre-industrial, the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets will continue to lose mass this century, with rates similar to those observed over the past decade. However, nonlinear responses cannot be excluded, which may l...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Nature Climate Change
Main Authors: Pattyn, F., Ritz, C., Hanna, E., Asay-Davis, X., DeConto, R., Durand, G., Favier, L., Fettweis, Xavier, Goelzer, H., Golledge, N., Kuipers Munneke, P., Lenaerts, J., Nowicki, S., Payne, A., Robinson, A., Seroussi, H., Trusel, L., van den Broeke, M.
Format: Article in Journal/Newspaper
Language:English
Published: Nature Publishing Group 2018
Subjects:
Physical
chemical
mathematical & earth Sciences
Earth sciences & physical geography
Physique
chimie
mathématiques & sciences de la terre
Sciences de la terre & géographie physique
Antarc*
Antarctic
Antarctica
Greenland
Ice Shelf
Online Access:https://orbi.uliege.be/handle/2268/229342
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-018-0305-8
Description
Summary:peer reviewed Even if anthropogenic warming were constrained to less than 2 °C above pre-industrial, the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets will continue to lose mass this century, with rates similar to those observed over the past decade. However, nonlinear responses cannot be excluded, which may lead to larger rates of mass loss. Furthermore, large uncertainties in future projections still remain, pertaining to knowledge gaps in atmospheric (Greenland) and oceanic (Antarctica) forcing. On millennial timescales, both ice sheets have tipping points at or slightly above the 1.5–2.0 °C threshold; for Greenland, this may lead to irreversible mass loss due to the surface mass balance–elevation feedback, whereas for Antarctica, this could result in a collapse of major drainage basins due to ice-shelf weakening.

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