Combining Predicted Seabird Movements and Oil Drift Using Lagrangian Agent-Based Model Solutions
In traditional oil spill risk assessments, the mortality of seabirds is typically assessed based on a simulated amount of oil combined with a statistical and static (seasonal mean) number of birds within a given grid cell. The size of the cell is typically in the order of 10 by 10 km. Cell averagin...
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| Other Authors: | , |
| Format: | Article in Journal/Newspaper |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
2019
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| Online Access: | https://openresearchlibrary.org/viewer/7e65138e-9086-4ff4-b78b-f6bce5de252e https://openresearchlibrary.org/ext/api/media/7e65138e-9086-4ff4-b78b-f6bce5de252e/assets/external_content.pdf |
| Summary: | In traditional oil spill risk assessments, the mortality of seabirds is typically assessed based on a simulated amount of oil combined with a statistical and static (seasonal mean) number of birds within a given grid cell. The size of the cell is typically in the order of 10 by 10 km. Cell averaging in a coarse Eulerian grid will inevitably introduce a high degree of uncertainty with respect to real impact, and due to the patchiness in seabird distribution may result in over-estimation of impacts outside high-density areas and underestimation within high-density patches. Lagrangian agent-based modelling of species movements and oil drift directly would provide consistent results independent of the grid resolution and, at the same time, provide a fine-scale resolution of potential impacts. The robustness of this approach is demonstrated for a potential oil spill in the Barents Sea in an area with a high density of Common Guillemot, followed by a discussion on how this approach can improve future risk assessments during oil spills. |
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