Interannual to decadal climate predictability in the North Atlantic: A multimodel-ensemble study

Perfect model ensemble experiments are performed with five coupled atmosphere-ocean models to investigate the potential for initial-value climate forecasts on interannual to decadal time scales. Experiments are started from similar initial states and common diagnostics of predictability are used. We...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Journal of Climate
Main Authors: Collins, M., Botzet, M., Carril, A., Drange, H., Jouzeau, A., Latif, Mojib, Ottera, O.H., Masina, S., Pohlmann, Holger, Sorteberg, A., Sutton, R., Terray, L.
Format: Article in Journal/Newspaper
Language:English
Published: AMS (American Meteorological Society) 2006
Subjects:
North Atlantic
Online Access:https://oceanrep.geomar.de/id/eprint/4804/
https://oceanrep.geomar.de/id/eprint/4804/1/predicate_paper.pdf
https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI3654.1
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Summary:Perfect model ensemble experiments are performed with five coupled atmosphere-ocean models to investigate the potential for initial-value climate forecasts on interannual to decadal time scales. Experiments are started from similar initial states and common diagnostics of predictability are used. We find that; variations in the ocean Meridional Overturning Circulation are potentially predictable on interannual to decadal time scales, a more consistent picture of the surface temperature impact of decadal variations in the MOC is now apparent, and variations of surface air temperatures in the N. Atlantic are also potentially predictable on interannual to decadal time scales, albeit with potential skill levels which are less than those seen for MOC variations. This inter-comparison represents a step forward in assessing the robustness of model estimates of potential skill and is a pre-requisite for the development of any operational forecasting system

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