Current and Future Decadal Trends in the Oceanic Carbon Uptake Are Dominated by Internal Variability
We investigate the internal decadal variability of the ocean carbon uptake using 100 ensemble simulations based on the Max Planck Institute Earth system model (MPI‐ESM). We find that on decadal time scales, internal variability (ensemble spread) is as large as the forced temporal variability (ensemb...
Published in: | Geophysical Research Letters |
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AGU (American Geophysical Union)
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Online Access: | https://oceanrep.geomar.de/id/eprint/44244/ https://oceanrep.geomar.de/id/eprint/44244/1/Li_et_al-2018-Geophysical_Research_Letters.pdf https://doi.org/10.1002/2017GL075370 |
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ftoceanrep:oai:oceanrep.geomar.de:44244 2023-05-15T17:32:42+02:00 Current and Future Decadal Trends in the Oceanic Carbon Uptake Are Dominated by Internal Variability Li, Hongmei Ilyina, Tatiana 2018-01-28 text https://oceanrep.geomar.de/id/eprint/44244/ https://oceanrep.geomar.de/id/eprint/44244/1/Li_et_al-2018-Geophysical_Research_Letters.pdf https://doi.org/10.1002/2017GL075370 en eng AGU (American Geophysical Union) Wiley https://oceanrep.geomar.de/id/eprint/44244/1/Li_et_al-2018-Geophysical_Research_Letters.pdf Li, H. and Ilyina, T. (2018) Current and Future Decadal Trends in the Oceanic Carbon Uptake Are Dominated by Internal Variability. Open Access Geophysical Research Letters, 45 (2). pp. 916-925. DOI 10.1002/2017GL075370 <https://doi.org/10.1002/2017GL075370>. doi:10.1002/2017GL075370 cc_by_nc_nd_4.0 info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess Article PeerReviewed 2018 ftoceanrep https://doi.org/10.1002/2017GL075370 2023-04-07T15:41:11Z We investigate the internal decadal variability of the ocean carbon uptake using 100 ensemble simulations based on the Max Planck Institute Earth system model (MPI‐ESM). We find that on decadal time scales, internal variability (ensemble spread) is as large as the forced temporal variability (ensemble mean), and the largest internal variability is found in major carbon sink regions, that is, the 50–65°S band of the Southern Ocean, the North Pacific, and the North Atlantic. The MPI‐ESM ensemble produces both positive and negative 10 year trends in the ocean carbon uptake in agreement with observational estimates. Negative decadal trends are projected to occur in the future under RCP4.5 scenario. Due to the large internal variability, the Southern Ocean and the North Pacific require the most ensemble members (more than 53 and 46, respectively) to reproduce the forced decadal trends. This number increases up to 79 in future decades as CO2 emission trajectory changes. Article in Journal/Newspaper North Atlantic Southern Ocean OceanRep (GEOMAR Helmholtz Centre für Ocean Research Kiel) Pacific Southern Ocean Geophysical Research Letters 45 2 916 925 |
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Open Polar |
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OceanRep (GEOMAR Helmholtz Centre für Ocean Research Kiel) |
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ftoceanrep |
language |
English |
description |
We investigate the internal decadal variability of the ocean carbon uptake using 100 ensemble simulations based on the Max Planck Institute Earth system model (MPI‐ESM). We find that on decadal time scales, internal variability (ensemble spread) is as large as the forced temporal variability (ensemble mean), and the largest internal variability is found in major carbon sink regions, that is, the 50–65°S band of the Southern Ocean, the North Pacific, and the North Atlantic. The MPI‐ESM ensemble produces both positive and negative 10 year trends in the ocean carbon uptake in agreement with observational estimates. Negative decadal trends are projected to occur in the future under RCP4.5 scenario. Due to the large internal variability, the Southern Ocean and the North Pacific require the most ensemble members (more than 53 and 46, respectively) to reproduce the forced decadal trends. This number increases up to 79 in future decades as CO2 emission trajectory changes. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Li, Hongmei Ilyina, Tatiana |
spellingShingle |
Li, Hongmei Ilyina, Tatiana Current and Future Decadal Trends in the Oceanic Carbon Uptake Are Dominated by Internal Variability |
author_facet |
Li, Hongmei Ilyina, Tatiana |
author_sort |
Li, Hongmei |
title |
Current and Future Decadal Trends in the Oceanic Carbon Uptake Are Dominated by Internal Variability |
title_short |
Current and Future Decadal Trends in the Oceanic Carbon Uptake Are Dominated by Internal Variability |
title_full |
Current and Future Decadal Trends in the Oceanic Carbon Uptake Are Dominated by Internal Variability |
title_fullStr |
Current and Future Decadal Trends in the Oceanic Carbon Uptake Are Dominated by Internal Variability |
title_full_unstemmed |
Current and Future Decadal Trends in the Oceanic Carbon Uptake Are Dominated by Internal Variability |
title_sort |
current and future decadal trends in the oceanic carbon uptake are dominated by internal variability |
publisher |
AGU (American Geophysical Union) |
publishDate |
2018 |
url |
https://oceanrep.geomar.de/id/eprint/44244/ https://oceanrep.geomar.de/id/eprint/44244/1/Li_et_al-2018-Geophysical_Research_Letters.pdf https://doi.org/10.1002/2017GL075370 |
geographic |
Pacific Southern Ocean |
geographic_facet |
Pacific Southern Ocean |
genre |
North Atlantic Southern Ocean |
genre_facet |
North Atlantic Southern Ocean |
op_relation |
https://oceanrep.geomar.de/id/eprint/44244/1/Li_et_al-2018-Geophysical_Research_Letters.pdf Li, H. and Ilyina, T. (2018) Current and Future Decadal Trends in the Oceanic Carbon Uptake Are Dominated by Internal Variability. Open Access Geophysical Research Letters, 45 (2). pp. 916-925. DOI 10.1002/2017GL075370 <https://doi.org/10.1002/2017GL075370>. doi:10.1002/2017GL075370 |
op_rights |
cc_by_nc_nd_4.0 info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1002/2017GL075370 |
container_title |
Geophysical Research Letters |
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45 |
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2 |
container_start_page |
916 |
op_container_end_page |
925 |
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1766130947966631936 |