Current and Future Decadal Trends in the Oceanic Carbon Uptake Are Dominated by Internal Variability

We investigate the internal decadal variability of the ocean carbon uptake using 100 ensemble simulations based on the Max Planck Institute Earth system model (MPI‐ESM). We find that on decadal time scales, internal variability (ensemble spread) is as large as the forced temporal variability (ensemb...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Geophysical Research Letters
Main Authors: Li, Hongmei, Ilyina, Tatiana
Format: Article in Journal/Newspaper
Language:English
Published: AGU (American Geophysical Union) 2018
Subjects:
Pacific
Southern Ocean
North Atlantic
Online Access:https://oceanrep.geomar.de/id/eprint/44244/
https://oceanrep.geomar.de/id/eprint/44244/1/Li_et_al-2018-Geophysical_Research_Letters.pdf
https://doi.org/10.1002/2017GL075370
Description
Summary:We investigate the internal decadal variability of the ocean carbon uptake using 100 ensemble simulations based on the Max Planck Institute Earth system model (MPI‐ESM). We find that on decadal time scales, internal variability (ensemble spread) is as large as the forced temporal variability (ensemble mean), and the largest internal variability is found in major carbon sink regions, that is, the 50–65°S band of the Southern Ocean, the North Pacific, and the North Atlantic. The MPI‐ESM ensemble produces both positive and negative 10 year trends in the ocean carbon uptake in agreement with observational estimates. Negative decadal trends are projected to occur in the future under RCP4.5 scenario. Due to the large internal variability, the Southern Ocean and the North Pacific require the most ensemble members (more than 53 and 46, respectively) to reproduce the forced decadal trends. This number increases up to 79 in future decades as CO2 emission trajectory changes.

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