Analysis of cyclone tracks over southern Europe and their effects on weather in the Adriatic region

• Main Author: Dević, Tihana
• Other Authors: Koračin, Darko
• Format: Master Thesis
• Language: English
• Published: Sveučilište u Splitu. Prirodoslovno-matematički fakultet. Odjel za fiziku. 2020
• Subjects: PRIRODNE ZNANOSTI. Geofizika; NATURAL SCIENCES. Geophysics; mean sea level pressure; cyclone; Europe; The Adriatic; climate oscillations; North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO); prosječni tlak na razini mora; ciklona; Europa; Jadran; klimatske oscilacije; Sjevernoatlanska oscilacija (NAO); North Atlantic; North Atlantic oscillation
• Online Access: https://zir.nsk.hr/islandora/object/pmfst:1156; https://urn.nsk.hr/urn:nbn:hr:166:435699; https://repozitorij.svkst.unist.hr/islandora/object/pmfst:1156; https://repozitorij.svkst.unist.hr/islandora/object/pmfst:1156/datastream/PDF

The objective of this thesis is to develop a method for objective determination of cyclone trajectories over Europe, with a special analysis of the Adriatic area. The method consists of processing ERA-Interim reanalysis data for mean sea level pressure values taken from the ECMWF (European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) for the winter months of 2002–2005 with a 6-hour time resolution. We have created an algorithm that, under given conditions, determines closed cyclone systems across the whole Europe and observes each point of the field in the interval from 920 to 1050 hPa as a possible center of the cyclone. If the conditions are met, the cyclone range is calculated, and finally, the cyclone strength is analyzed. This was followed by a correlation of cyclone analysis with the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) to examine the possible impact of this short-term climate variability on weather conditions in the Adriatic region. In winter over Southern Europe, a negative NAO phase induces warmer weather, more precipitation, and intensified cyclone activity. Among other results, a more detailed analysis showed that a larger number of most intensive cyclones in the area are connected to the negative NAO phase. Cilj ovog diplomskog rada je razvoj metode za objektivno određivanje putanja ciklona nad Europom, s posebnom analizom Jadranskog područja. Metoda se sastoji od obrade podataka reanalize ERA-Interim za prosječne vrijednosti površinskog tlaka nad morem preuzete iz ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) za razdoblje zimskih mjeseci od 2002. do 2005. sa 6-satnom vremenskom razlučivosti. Razvili smo algoritam koji uz zadane uvjete određuje zatvorene ciklonske sustave preko cijele Europe te promatra svaku točku polja tlaka u intervalu od 920 do 1050 hPa kao mogući centar ciklone. Ukoliko je uvjet zadovoljen, izračunat je doseg ciklone, a naposljetku analizom i sama jačina. Uslijedila je analiza korelacija ciklona sa Sjevernoatlantskom oscilacijom (NAO) da bi se ispitao mogući utjecaj te ...