Climate-induced changes in the suitable habitat of cold-water corals and commercially important deep-sea fishes in the North Atlantic

• Published in: Global Change Biology
• Main Authors: Morato, Telmo, Gonzalez-Irusta, Jose-Manuel, Dominguez-Carrio, Carlos, Wei, Chih-Lin, Davies, Andrew, Sweetman, Andrew K., Taranto, Gerald H., Beazley, Lindsay, Garcia-Alegre, Ana, Grehan, Anthony, Laffargue, Pascal, Murillo, Francisco Javier, Sacau, Mar, Vaz, Sandrine, Kenchington, Ellen, Arnaud-Haond, Sophie, Callery, Oisin, Chimienti, Giovanni, Cordes, Erik, Egilsdottir, Hronn, Freiwald, Andre, Gasbarro, Ryan, Gutierrez-Zarate, Cristina, Gianni, Matthew, Gilkinson, Kent, Wareham Hayes, Vonda E., Hebbeln, Dierk, Hedges, Kevin, Henry, Lea-Anne, Johnson, David, Koen-Alonso, Mariano, Lirette, Cam, Mastrototaro, Francesco, Menot, Lenaick, Molodtsova, Tina, Duran Munoz, Pablo, Orejas, Covadonga, Pennino, Maria Grazia, Puerta, Patricia, Ragnarsson, Stefan A, Ramiro-Sanchez, Berta, Rice, Jake, Rivera, Jesus, Roberts, J. Murray, Ross, Steve W., Rueda, Jose L., Sampaio, Iris, Snelgrove, Paul, Stirling, David, Treble, Margaret A., Urra, Javier, Vad, Johanne, Oevelen, Dick, Van, Watling, Les, Walkusz, Wojciech, Wienberg, Claudia, Woillez, Mathieu, Levin, Lisa A., Carreiro-Silva, Marina
• Other Authors: Marine and Environmental Sciences Centre Portugal (MARE), Instituto Universitário de Ciências Psicológicas, Sociais e da Vida = University Institute of Psychological, Social and Life Sciences (ISPA), Instituto do Mar - Universidade dos Açores (IMAR-UAc), Instituto Español de Oceanografía - Spanish Institute of Oceanography (IEO), Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Cientificas = Spanish National Research Council (CSIC), Institute of Marine Sciences / Institut de Ciències del Mar Barcelona (ICM), National University of Ireland Galway (NUI Galway), MARine Biodiversity Exploitation and Conservation (UMR MARBEC), Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Institut Français de Recherche pour l'Exploitation de la Mer (IFREMER)-Université de Montpellier (UM)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Fisheries and Oceans Canada (DFO), Consorzio Nazionale Interuniversitario per le Scienze del Mare Rome, Italie (CoNISma), Università degli studi di Bari Aldo Moro = University of Bari Aldo Moro (UNIBA), Temple University Philadelphia, Pennsylvania Commonwealth System of Higher Education (PCSHE), Institute of Freshwater Research, Department of Aquatic Resources, Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences = Sveriges lantbruksuniversitet (SLU)-Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences = Sveriges lantbruksuniversitet (SLU), Senckenberg am Meer, Center for Marine Environmental Sciences Bremen (MARUM), Universität Bremen, University of Edinburgh (Edin.), University College of London London (UCL), Laboratoire Environnement Profond (LEP), Etudes des Ecosystèmes Profonds (EEP), Institut Français de Recherche pour l'Exploitation de la Mer (IFREMER)-Institut Français de Recherche pour l'Exploitation de la Mer (IFREMER), P.P. Shirshov Institute of Oceanology (SIO), Russian Academy of Sciences Moscow (RAS), Biologie des Organismes et Ecosystèmes Aquatiques (BOREA), Université de Caen Normandie (UNICAEN), Normandie Université (NU)-Normandie Université (NU)-Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université des Antilles (UA), Memorial University of Newfoundland = Université Memorial de Terre-Neuve St. John's, Canada (MUN), Marine Scotland Science (MSS), University of Hawai‘i Mānoa (UHM)
• Format: Article in Journal/Newspaper
• Language: English
• Published: HAL CCSD 2020
• Subjects: fisheries; protected areas; climate change; species distribution models; ocean acidification; fishes; cold-water corals; deep-sea; lophelia-pertusa; thermal tolerance; calcification rates; cod gadus-morhua; envelope models; habitat suitability modelling; octocorals; scleractinian corals; scleractinians; vulnerable marine ecosystems; [SDE.BE]Environmental Sciences/Biodiversity and Ecology; [SDE.MCG]Environmental Sciences/Global Changes; Gadus morhua; Lophelia pertusa; North Atlantic; Ocean acidification; Paragorgia arborea; Sebastes mentella
• Online Access: https://hal.umontpellier.fr/hal-03411040; https://hal.umontpellier.fr/hal-03411040/document; https://hal.umontpellier.fr/hal-03411040/file/Global%20Change%20Biology%20-%202020%20-%20Morato%20-%20Climate%25u2010induced%20changes%20in%20the%20suitable%20habitat%20of%20cold%25u2010water%20corals%20and.pdf; https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.14996

Place: Hoboken Publisher: Wiley WOS:000514391400001 International audience The deep sea plays a critical role in global climate regulation through uptake and storage of heat and carbon dioxide. However, this regulating service causes warming, acidification and deoxygenation of deep waters, leading to decreased food availability at the seafloor. These changes and their projections are likely to affect productivity, biodiversity and distributions of deep-sea fauna, thereby compromising key ecosystem services. Understanding how climate change can lead to shifts in deep-sea species distributions is critically important in developing management measures. We used environmental niche modelling along with the best available species occurrence data and environmental parameters to model habitat suitability for key cold-water coral and commercially important deep-sea fish species under present-day (1951-2000) environmental conditions and to project changes under severe, high emissions future (2081-2100) climate projections (RCP8.5 scenario) for the North Atlantic Ocean. Our models projected a decrease of 28%-100% in suitable habitat for cold-water corals and a shift in suitable habitat for deep-sea fishes of 2.0 degrees-9.9 degrees towards higher latitudes. The largest reductions in suitable habitat were projected for the scleractinian coral Lophelia pertusa and the octocoral Paragorgia arborea, with declines of at least 79% and 99% respectively. We projected the expansion of suitable habitat by 2100 only for the fishes Helicolenus dactylopterus and Sebastes mentella (20%-30%), mostly through northern latitudinal range expansion. Our results projected limited climate refugia locations in the North Atlantic by 2100 for scleractinian corals (30%-42% of present-day suitable habitat), even smaller refugia locations for the octocorals Acanella arbuscula and Acanthogorgia armata (6%-14%), and almost no refugia for P. arborea. Our results emphasize the need to understand how anticipated climate change will affect the ...