Surface networks in the Arctic may miss a future "methane bomb"
The Arctic is warming up to four times faster than the global average, leading to significant environmental changes. Given the sensitivity of natural methane (CH4) sources to environmental conditions, increasing Arctic temperatures are expected to lead to higher CH4 emissions, particularly due to pe...
| Main Authors: | , , , , |
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| Format: | Article in Journal/Newspaper |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Copernicus Publications
2023
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| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2308 https://noa.gwlb.de/receive/cop_mods_00069767 https://noa.gwlb.de/servlets/MCRFileNodeServlet/cop_derivate_00068138/egusphere-2023-2308.pdf https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2023/egusphere-2023-2308/egusphere-2023-2308.pdf |
| Summary: | The Arctic is warming up to four times faster than the global average, leading to significant environmental changes. Given the sensitivity of natural methane (CH4) sources to environmental conditions, increasing Arctic temperatures are expected to lead to higher CH4 emissions, particularly due to permafrost thaw and the exposure of organic matter. Some estimates therefore assume an Arctic "methane bomb" where vast CH4 amounts are rapidly released. This study examines the ability of the in-situ observation network to detect such events in the Arctic, a generally poorly constrained region. Using the FLEXPART atmospheric transport model and varying CH4 emission scenarios, we found that areas with a dense observation network could detect a "methane bomb" in 2 to 10 years. In contrast, regions with sparse coverage would need 10 to 30 years, with potential false positives in other areas. |
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