Uncertainty in the evolution of northwest North Atlantic circulation leads to diverging biogeochemical projections
The global ocean’s coastal areas are rapidly experiencing the effects of climate change. These regions are highly dynamic, with relatively small-scale circulation features like shelf-break currents playing an important role. Projections can produce widely diverging estimates of future regional circu...
| Main Authors: | , , , |
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| Format: | Article in Journal/Newspaper |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Copernicus Publications
2023
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| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-987 https://noa.gwlb.de/receive/cop_mods_00066841 https://noa.gwlb.de/servlets/MCRFileNodeServlet/cop_derivate_00065311/egusphere-2023-987.pdf https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2023/egusphere-2023-987/egusphere-2023-987.pdf |
| Summary: | The global ocean’s coastal areas are rapidly experiencing the effects of climate change. These regions are highly dynamic, with relatively small-scale circulation features like shelf-break currents playing an important role. Projections can produce widely diverging estimates of future regional circulation structures. Here, we use the northwest North Atlantic, a hotspot of ocean warming, as a case study to illustrate how the uncertainty in future estimates of regional circulation manifests itself and affects projections of shelf-wide biogeochemistry. Two diverging climate model projections are considered and downscaled using a high-resolution regional model with intermediate biogeochemical complexity. The two resulting future scenarios exhibit qualitatively different circulation structures by 2075 where along-shelf volume transport is reduced by 70 % in one of them and while remaining largely unchanged in the other. The reduction in along-shelf transport creates localized areas with either amplified warming (+3 °C) and salinification (+0.25 units) or increased acidification (-0.25 units) in shelf bottom waters. Our results illustrate that a wide range of outcomes is possible for continental margins and suggest a need for accurate projections of small-scale circulation features like shelf-break currents in order to improve the reliability of biogeochemical projections. |
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