Empirically derived climate predictability over the extratropical northern hemisphere

• Published in: Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics
• Main Authors: Elsner, J. B., Tsonis, A. A.
• Format: Article in Journal/Newspaper
• Language: English
• Published: Copernicus Publications 1994
• Subjects: article; Verlagsveröffentlichung; North Atlantic; North Atlantic oscillation
• Online Access: https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-1-41-1994; https://noa.gwlb.de/receive/cop_mods_00038134; https://noa.gwlb.de/servlets/MCRFileNodeServlet/cop_derivate_00037835/npg-1-41-1994.pdf; https://npg.copernicus.org/articles/1/41/1994/npg-1-41-1994.pdf

A novel application of a technique developed from chaos theory is used in describing seasonal to interannual climate predictability over the Northern Hemisphere (NH). The technique is based on an empirical forecast scheme - local approximation in a reconstructed phase space - for time-series data. Data are monthly 500 hPa heights on a latitude-longitude grid covering the NH from 20° N to the equator. Predictability is estimated based on the linear correlation between actual and predicted heights averaged over a forecast range of one- to twelve.month lead. The method is capable of extracting the major climate signals on this time scale including ENSO and the North Atlantic Oscillation.