Empirically derived climate predictability over the extratropical northern hemisphere
A novel application of a technique developed from chaos theory is used in describing seasonal to interannual climate predictability over the Northern Hemisphere (NH). The technique is based on an empirical forecast scheme - local approximation in a reconstructed phase space - for time-series data. D...
| Published in: | Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics |
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| Main Authors: | , |
| Format: | Article in Journal/Newspaper |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Copernicus Publications
1994
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| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-1-41-1994 https://noa.gwlb.de/receive/cop_mods_00038134 https://noa.gwlb.de/servlets/MCRFileNodeServlet/cop_derivate_00037835/npg-1-41-1994.pdf https://npg.copernicus.org/articles/1/41/1994/npg-1-41-1994.pdf |
| Summary: | A novel application of a technique developed from chaos theory is used in describing seasonal to interannual climate predictability over the Northern Hemisphere (NH). The technique is based on an empirical forecast scheme - local approximation in a reconstructed phase space - for time-series data. Data are monthly 500 hPa heights on a latitude-longitude grid covering the NH from 20° N to the equator. Predictability is estimated based on the linear correlation between actual and predicted heights averaged over a forecast range of one- to twelve.month lead. The method is capable of extracting the major climate signals on this time scale including ENSO and the North Atlantic Oscillation. |
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