Country-level assessment of future risk of water scarcity in Europe

A methodology for regional assessment of current and future water availability in Europe is presented in this study. The methodology is based on a proposed indicator of risk of water scarcity based on the projections of runoff and water availability for European countries. The risk of water scarcity...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Proceedings of the International Association of Hydrological Sciences
Main Authors: Garrote, Luis, Iglesias, Ana, Granados, Alfredo
Format: Article in Journal/Newspaper
Language:English
Published: Copernicus Publications 2018
Subjects:
Online Access:https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-379-455-2018
https://noa.gwlb.de/receive/cop_mods_00005653
https://noa.gwlb.de/servlets/MCRFileNodeServlet/cop_derivate_00005610/piahs-379-455-2018.pdf
https://piahs.copernicus.org/articles/379/455/2018/piahs-379-455-2018.pdf
Description
Summary:A methodology for regional assessment of current and future water availability in Europe is presented in this study. The methodology is based on a proposed indicator of risk of water scarcity based on the projections of runoff and water availability for European countries. The risk of water scarcity is the combined result of hydrological processes, which determine streamflow in natural conditions, and human intervention, which determines water management using the available hydraulic infrastructure and establishes water supply conditions through operating rules. Model results show that changes in runoff and availability obtained for individual GCM projections can be large and even contradictory. These heterogeneous results are summarized in the water scarcity risk index, a global value that accounts for the results obtained with the ensemble of model results and emission scenarios. The countries at larger risk are (in this order) Spain, Portugal, Macedonia, Greece, Bulgaria, Albania, France and Italy. They are mostly Mediterranean countries already exposed to significant water scarcity problems. There are countries, like Slovakia, Ireland, Belgium, Luxembourg, Croatia and Romania, with mild risk. Northern Arctic countries, like Sweden, Finland, Norway and Russia, show a robust however mild increase in water availability.