Uncertainties in long-term twenty-first century process-based coastal sea-level projections
Many processes affect sea level near the coast. In this paper, we discuss the major uncertainties in coastal sea-level projections from a process-based perspective, at different spatial and temporal scales, and provide an outlook on how these uncertainties may be reduced. Uncertainty in centennial g...
Published in: | Surveys in Geophysics |
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Main Authors: | , , , , , , , |
Format: | Article in Journal/Newspaper |
Language: | English |
Published: |
2019
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Subjects: | |
Online Access: | http://nora.nerc.ac.uk/id/eprint/527078/ https://nora.nerc.ac.uk/id/eprint/527078/1/Wal2019_Article_UncertaintiesInLong-TermTwenty.pdf https://doi.org/10.1007/s10712-019-09575-3 |
Summary: | Many processes affect sea level near the coast. In this paper, we discuss the major uncertainties in coastal sea-level projections from a process-based perspective, at different spatial and temporal scales, and provide an outlook on how these uncertainties may be reduced. Uncertainty in centennial global sea-level rise is dominated by the ice sheet contributions. Geographical variations in projected sea-level change arise mainly from dynamical patterns in the ocean response and other geophysical processes. Finally, the uncertainties in the short-duration extreme sea-level events are controlled by near coastal processes, storms and tides. |
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