Uncertainties in long-term twenty-first century process-based coastal sea-level projections

Many processes affect sea level near the coast. In this paper, we discuss the major uncertainties in coastal sea-level projections from a process-based perspective, at different spatial and temporal scales, and provide an outlook on how these uncertainties may be reduced. Uncertainty in centennial g...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Surveys in Geophysics
Main Authors: van de Wal, R. S. W., Zhang, X., Minobe, S., Jevrejeva, S., Riva, R. E. M., Little, C., Richter, K., Palmer, M. D.
Format: Article in Journal/Newspaper
Language:English
Published: 2019
Subjects:
Ice Sheet
Online Access:http://nora.nerc.ac.uk/id/eprint/527078/
https://nora.nerc.ac.uk/id/eprint/527078/1/Wal2019_Article_UncertaintiesInLong-TermTwenty.pdf
https://doi.org/10.1007/s10712-019-09575-3
Description
Summary:Many processes affect sea level near the coast. In this paper, we discuss the major uncertainties in coastal sea-level projections from a process-based perspective, at different spatial and temporal scales, and provide an outlook on how these uncertainties may be reduced. Uncertainty in centennial global sea-level rise is dominated by the ice sheet contributions. Geographical variations in projected sea-level change arise mainly from dynamical patterns in the ocean response and other geophysical processes. Finally, the uncertainties in the short-duration extreme sea-level events are controlled by near coastal processes, storms and tides.

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