| Summary: | 行政院農委會糧食平衡表顯示，台灣於2001至2010間，每人每年平均肉類消費量達76.12公斤，平均每人每月消耗6.34公斤的肉品，而隨著國人飲食習慣的改變，牛肉消費於2001至2010間成長58.8%，而豬肉消費則減少8.4%，顯示國人對牛肉偏好增加；然而近來海關頻頻查驗出含有瘦肉精之進口牛肉，加上台灣每年牛肉之消費約有95%仰賴進口，且狂牛病的疑慮也尚未解除，因此引起國人對這項食品安全議題更加重視。另外，在回顧過去文獻中，發現國人在口蹄疫事件後，豬肉消費需求有下降的趨勢，而且消費者面臨禽流感、狂牛症和H1N1新流感威脅時，會分別造成雞肉、牛肉及豬肉的消費比例減少，而近年研究也發現美牛事件(狂牛症和萊克多巴胺)會造成消費者購買意圖的改變，進而改變其消費行為，因此本文擬利用瘦肉精事件，來了解國人是否對牛肉的消費減少，以及對其他肉類需求的變化。 利用近似理想需求體系所建立的實證模型，估計瘦肉精事件對台灣牛肉需求的結構性變動，研究期間為2006年4月至2011年12月，以美國牛肉、澳洲牛肉、紐西蘭牛肉、國產之豬肉、雞肉及其他肉類(台灣牛、羊、鴨)為分析對象。實證模型估計結果顯示，瘦肉精事件對國人肉類需求的影響有兩個月的過渡期。由各肉類結構變化期前後的自身價格彈性、交叉彈性及支出彈性來看，並沒有太大的差異，整體而言各項肉類消費受到2011年所發生的瘦肉精牛肉事件影響不大。瘦肉精牛肉的議題至今仍在進行，而政府雖然將不合格進口商所進口的牛肉調升抽驗比例且逐批查驗，但仍無法完全提升國人對牛肉的消費信心。 According to Food Balance Sheets from Council of Agriculture, Executive Yuan, the average meat consumption of annual per capita in Taiwan amounted to 76.12 kilogram from 2001 to 2010. As western cultural gradually influence people’s, diet in Taiwan, beef consumption has increased by 58.8% from 2001 to 2010, while pork consumption decreased by 8.4%, showing the increasing preference on beef consumption. In Taiwan, 95% of beef consumption depends on imports, however more and more imported beef were examined with β-agonist contained recently. Plus the food safety doubts on mad cow disease, the public has paid more and more attention on beef safety issues. Furthermore, in the previous literatures, pork demand were found declined after foot-and-mouth disease, and the consumption proportion of chicken, beef and pork were all found decreased when facing animal diseases such as avian flu, mad cow disease and H1N1 flu. In addition, a recent research verified that mad cow disease and β-agonist event caused consumers to change their consumption behaviors. Therefore, this research further examines whether Taiwanese consumers replace their beef consumptions with other meats due to β-agonist event. Almost Ideal Demand System was applied to estimate the impact of β-agonist event on structural change of beef demand from April 2006 to December 2011 in Taiwan. In this reserch, three kinds of beef (U.S., Australian and New Zealand), homebred pork, chicken and other meat (Taiwanese beef, mutton, duck) were estimated.The results showed that the impact of meat demand underwent a two-month transition period, following the first β-agonist event breakout. Moreover, cross price elasticities and income elasticities of meats are found not much different before and after structure change. To sum up, the consumption of meat is only slightly affected by β-agonist event in 2011. The discussion of β-agonist issue is still in progress, even though the government will increase random testing ratio for imported meats, it is still can only enhance the confidence on beef consumption a little. 第一章 緒 論 1 第一節 研究動機與目的 1 第二節 研究方法與步驟 6 第三節 研究範圍與資料來源 7 第四節 本文架構 8 第二章 文獻回顧 9 第一節 食品安全議題之探討 9 第二節 需求體系模型之應用 12 第三節 國內需求結構性變動之實證研究 15 第三章 理論基礎架構 19 第一節 消費者需求理論 19 第二節 需求函數之一般限制式 24 第三節 效用函數可分性與兩階段預算法 27 第四節 理論模型 29 第四章 實證分析 34 第一節 資料處理及說明 34 第二節 單根與共整合檢定 37 第三節 實證模型建立與估計方法 41 第四節 實證估計結果 43 第五章 結論 56 第一節 結論 56 第二節 研究限制 59 參考文獻 61 一、 中文部分 61 二、 英文部分 63 附 錄 67
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