| Summary: | 本研究透過瞭解我國養禽業者對高病原性禽流感之風險知覺和疾病訊息的接收情形，分析其對疾病保險之投保意願及影響其決策之因素，進而探討保險需求之投保願付金額，提出相關資訊，供政府或保險業者擬定與評估相關策略之參考。 本研究於2007年10月和11月透過調查訪問，共以964位來自全國雞、鴨、鵝三種不同家禽業者資料進行分析。主要實證結果如下： 一、 受訪業者對禽流感疾病持有較高的風險知覺，並重視疾病防治訊息，多數業者亦願意以保險的方式，來分散重大疾病所可能帶來的損失。 二、 保險需求決策方程式中，以「年齡」、「教育程度」、「數量」、「陸水禽種」及「風險知覺」為顯著正向關係，而「訊息接收度」則為顯著負相關。根據Logit保險決策的邊際效果得知，「年齡」、「教育程度」、「陸水禽種」、「數量」、「風險知覺」和「資訊接受度」等因素，均會顯著影響購買機率。 三、 依照願付保費金額的條件，本研究並分別估算願付保費與潛在願付保費需求函數。統計結果發現，與固定保額下之願付保費金額有顯著正向關係的變數，計有「飼養數量」和「風險知覺」兩項，「年齡」則為負向反應。不過，「年齡」、「教育程度」和「禽舍型態」等變數，於決策反應與保險費率支出兩階段不同函數式中，相關變數的係數正負向反應並不一致相同，此或可推論在禽類疾病保險參與意願中，：「越有投保意願的業者，並不一定代表其對於固定保額的願付保費金額會越高」。 四、 根據相關的係數，本研究推估我國養禽業者對於固定保額保單之平均與潛在願付保險費率約為1.8963%及1.4013%。 根據研究結果，本文建議政府單位則應提供養禽業者正確與方便取得疾病資訊管道，考量業者表達之正向投保意願，保險業者應多重視目前尚無意願的潛在客戶。而在合理的財政考量下，相關部門則可參酌家畜保險方式，於開辦保險業務初期，給予適當補助，以降低養禽業者負擔，提高參與意願。 This study examines the poultry farmers to the highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) risk perception and the volume of disease information. After analyzing the factors which influenced their decision on poultry''s disease insurance, we also evaluate the willingness to pay on the demand of the specific insurance program, which may provide the information to the both public and private sectors in strategic implementations. 964 farmers from three different kinds of bird farms, which include chicken, duck and geese, were interviewed and the data was collected during the October and November of 2007. Empirical results are as follows: 1、 The interviewed farmers were the ones who perceived high riskiness on the HPAI disease and valued disease precaution information more. Significant positive response was observed on the bird farmers to divert their potential losses which caused by threat of severe diseases by buying the disease insurance policy. 2、 Estimating the decision demand equation of insurance policy, coefficients on “age”, “education”, “birds per batch”, “bird pattern” and “risk perception” were positive and statistically significant, but the coefficient for the “volume of received information” was negative with the statistical significance. After calculating the marginal effects for individual variables in the Logit equation from above, it implied that the probability of buying insurance for a certain farmers was significantly influenced by “age”, “education”, “bird pattern”, “birds per batch”, “risk perception” and “information volume”. 3、 Based on the willingness to pay on premium condition, this study estimated the premium expenditure functions both on real and potential aspects, respectively. Statistical results implied that reactions for “birds per batch” and “risk perception” were positive and significant, but “age” was significant with opposite direction. Furthermore the variables, says “age”, “education” and “birds'' cage capacity”, presenting the divert responses between the decision behavior and the expending amount on facing insurance policy. One conclusion can be addressed that: “the person who is with higher willingness on disease insurance participation may not necessarily reflect a higher amount of premium that he is willing to pay for the coverage.” 4、 Following the related coefficients, this study estimated that the bird farms’ average premium rates on real and potential insurances were 1.8963% and 1.4013%, respectively. According to the statistical results, this study suggests that the administrations should provide accurate and easy-access information related with the diseases to the farmers. Due to the significant and positive requests to the insurance policy from the interviewers, the insurers should pay more attention on the potential customers who currently present limited interest on the policy. With a reasonable financial consideration, administration may also adopt the current package for hog sector to subsidy the premium at the beginning stage to encourage the farmers to join the policy. 第一章 緒論 1 第一節 研究動機與目的 1 第二節 研究步驟與方法 4 第三節 研究範圍 5 第二章 研究背景與家禽產業介紹 7 第一節 研究背景 7 第二節 國內家禽業產業 10 第三章 理論與文獻回顧 14 第一節 風險管理理論 14 第二節 預期效用理論 17 第三節 保險與風險認知 20 第四章 實證研究設計 28 第一節 研究架構 28 第二節 問卷設計 30 第三節 研究資料來源 31 第四節 實證方法 33 第五章 實證結果 39 第一節 敘述統計分析 39 第二節 實證模型及變數說明 43 第三節 購買保險意願之決策分析 46 第四節 保險願付金額之分析 53 第六章 結論與建議 58 第一節 結論 58 第二節 研究建議 60 參考文獻 62
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