Evolution of the 2007 - 2008 Arctic sea ice cover and prospects for a new record in 2008
The record Arctic sea ice minimum in 2007 has heightened debate on whether the Arctic Ocean has reached a tipping point, leading to a rapid transition towards a seasonal ice cover. Here, we review the 2007 - 2008 winter and spring ice and atmosphere conditions and assess how likely another record mi...
Published in: | Geophysical Research Letters |
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Other Authors: | , , , , , |
Format: | Article in Journal/Newspaper |
Language: | English |
Published: |
American Geophysical Union
2008
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Subjects: | |
Online Access: | http://nldr.library.ucar.edu/repository/collections/OSGC-000-000-003-107 https://doi.org/10.1029/2008GL035316 |
Summary: | The record Arctic sea ice minimum in 2007 has heightened debate on whether the Arctic Ocean has reached a tipping point, leading to a rapid transition towards a seasonal ice cover. Here, we review the 2007 - 2008 winter and spring ice and atmosphere conditions and assess how likely another record minimum is in summer 2008. At the end of June, 67% of the Arctic Ocean was covered by younger-than-average ice and only 5% was covered by older than-average-ice. Using a simple estimate based on ice survival rates, a new record low is reached in 2008 in 24 of 25 cases. With a more complex linear regression model, we suggest the September sea ice extent will be 4.40 million square kilometers, with a 40% chance that 2008 will set a new record low Arctic ice minimum. |
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