| Summary: | The main thesis of this research is that sea ice thinning due to Arctic amplified climate warming will increase the operational risk of pressure ridge interaction. To address this, 9-km sea ice output from the Regional Arctic System Model (RASM) is analyzed over the period of 1980–2017. We diagnose changes in sea ice deformations, with an enhanced focus on decadal trends in the Western Arctic. Changes in sea ice area, mean and ridged ice thickness, drift velocity, and deformations are analyzed to: (1) diagnose spatial patterns, trends, and linkages among them, (2) verify model results against observations, and (3) identify areas of varying risks due to a changing sea ice state. Ridging is shown to be commonly occurring across areas where relatively thick sea ice interacts with thinner ice. We show that trends, including their sign, in sea ice deformations and ridged ice thickness are not the same throughout the Central nor Western Arctic. We find that ridged ice is increasingly forming along the Transpolar Drift route, which is projected to be one of the most utilized pan-Arctic commercial transit routes. Future research is recommended to (i) advance understanding of Arctic cyclone impacts on sea ice divergence, (ii) model the impact of landfast ice on sea ice drift and deformation, and (iii) evaluate the role of increasing model resolution in representing spatiotemporal trends of sea ice in the Arctic. Approved for public release. Distribution is unlimited. Lieutenant Commander, United States Navy
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