| Summary: | Arctic lands and waters are continuing to thaw with each passing decade, and the increasing interest in the economic, strategic, and transit potential of the “High North” is shaping the region into an arena of rising competition. This thesis seeks to answer the following question: What do Russia’s ambitious economic ventures, military buildup, and increasingly aggressive posture in the Arctic indicate regarding its intentions in the region? To address this puzzle, the thesis examines three hypotheses, rooted in different interpretations of Russian behavior in the region. The first hypothesis reflects Moscow’s claims that its military buildup is purely defensive and aimed to protect Russian economic and security interests in the Arctic. The second hypothesis asserts that Russia is striving to push out other competitors and become the regional hegemon in the Arctic. The third proposition is that Moscow’s Arctic efforts are primarily geared to gain access to new resource rents and to distract Russia’s population from domestic grievances, advancing the ruling regime’s hold on power. Tracing Russian actions in the region, the thesis finds that its posture in the Arctic is most consistent with the third, regime preservation motive, which may make Moscow’s future behavior particularly volatile. Approved for public release. Distribution is unlimited. Captain, United States Air Force
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